English Premier
2025-05-19 - Brighton vs Liverpool
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Monday 19th May 2025 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live
Brighton
If rivals Crystal Palace have been beaten in the FA Cup Final on Saturday, Brighton fans will arrive at the Amex Stadium for the last home game of the Premier League season believing their team can finish with a flourish and end up 8th in the standings. That would mean a return to European Football and ease the pressure that has been building on young manager Fabian Hurzeler in what the board may feel has been an underwhelming season if it does end without a return to one of the UEFA competitions next time around.
They begin this weekend in 9th place in the Premier League table, but Brighton are one of the last teams to kick off and Brentford may have moved clear in that spot. These two clubs are only separated on goal difference at the moment, but Brentford play on Sunday and could earn a result to put the pressure on the Brighton players on Monday evening. The Seagulls have a 7-8-3 record at the Amex Stadium this season where they have scored 27 goals and conceded 24.
Brighton were beaten in the FA Cup Quarter Final on Penalties and the 4-2 loss at the Gtech Community Stadium came at the end of a 5 game winless run in the Premier League as European hopes faded. The squad have responded well with 7 points earned from the last three Premier League fixtures after the win at Wolves last Saturday, but there is still work to do with two games remaining. Brighton have only won 1 of their last 4 home Premier League games and that was courtesy of goals in the 89th and 90th minute in a 3-2 success over West Ham United.
Joao Pedro is back from a suspension, but the squad is still dealing with a number of injuries. Both Joel Veltman and Lewis Dunk are hoping the game being pushed back to Monday allows them enough time to rejoin the match day squad.
Liverpool
You cannot be too surprised that some of the Liverpool intensity has been lost after the Premier League title has been secured, but they will still be irritated about blowing a 2-0 lead over Arsenal in a 2-2 draw at Anfield last Sunday. There is still one more party to have in front of the home fans before the parade on Bank Holiday Monday, but Arne Slot may be looking for the players to just show a bit more in the final away game of the long campaign.
The Reds are not going to crack the 90 point mark for the season, but they are 15 points clear of their nearest rivals in the Premier League standings and have done what they have needed to do to win a 20th top flight title. They take an 11-5-2 away record down to the South Coast for this late Monday kick off and Liverpool have scored 42 goals and conceded 22 in those matches.
Liverpool wrapped up the Premier League title in a 5-1 thumping of Tottenham Hotspur and that was the conclusion of a 3 game winning run in the Premier League. Since then, they have lost 3-1 at Chelsea and drawn 2-2 with Arsenal and the title secured has to be a factor. Liverpool have lost 2 of their last 3 away Premier League games at Fulham and Chelsea and those results have sandwiched a 0-1 win at Leicester City.
Joe Gomez remains the only absentee and the manager is likely going to rotate his starting eleven as he has for the last two League fixtures.
Head to Head
This is the third meeting between Liverpool and Brighton this season and it is the former who have won the previous two.
They came from behind to beat Brighton 2-1 at Anfield in the Premier League and Liverpool won an entertaining League Cup Fourth Round tie 2-3 at the Amex Stadium.
Brighton had been unbeaten in 3 home games against Liverpool before that League Cup defeat- they had won 2 in a row before the 2-2 draw here last season.
Prediction
The Liverpool players and management staff have all spent a few days away after the 2-2 draw with Arsenal and there is a real feeling that the players could be 'on the beach' having not been as intense in the two Premier League games played since securing the title.
Putting those facts together has seen the layers put a drift on the Liverpool prices and the win-draw-win market is much more even for this Monday night fixture than it may have been if both teams 'needed' to win.
Liverpool are still offering a real attacking threat, which is no surprise considering the calibre of forwards that Arne Slot has at his disposal. That will give them every chance of securing the victory at the Amex Stadium for a second time this season, but the lack of intensity has really shown on the defensive side of the field and that is going to be hugely encouraging for Brighton.
By the time this fixture begins, Brighton will know if a European spot is still available through the Premier League finish. Cheering against Crystal Palace is easy on any given day, but that is particularly the case in the FA Cup Final as a defeat for their rivals would mean 8th place will come with a spot in the Conference League next season.
Make no mistake, that would be a real winnable competition for a club like Brighton and Tony Bloom, the owner, has big ambitions.
At the time of writing we do not know how the FA Cup Final has played out and you would wonder if some of the energy will have sapped out of the Brighton squad if they know European Football will be missing on the calendar for another year.
Of course motivation to face the new Champions should offer some inspiration and Brighton are another club that have looked decent enough going forward, but with huge vulnerabilities at the back. They had conceded at least twice in 3 successive home Premier League games before the 1-1 draw with Newcastle United and anyone who tuned in that day will know the away team had plenty of chances to score more goals.
4 of the last 6 Liverpool games have featured at least four goals shared out, while that had been the case in 3 straight Brighton Premier League games before the draw with Newcastle United and 0-2 win at Wolves.
Goals have tended to be a feature of recent matches between the clubs with each of the last 7 fixtures ending with at least three goals shared out. The layers are well aware of that and have priced over 2.5 goals at a very short price, but it may be worth risking at least four goals to be scored on the night at odds against.
Out of those 7 fixtures between Brighton and Liverpool, 3 have ended with at least four goals scored, including the last 2 at the Amex Stadium. An early goal on Monday evening could lead to an open fixture and the defensive problems both teams have displayed over the last month could see the goals rack up here.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Brighton 2-2 Liverpool
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.11 with SportBet.One
