AFL Aussie Rules
2018-08-18 - Collingwood Pies vs Port Adelaide
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
AFL AUSSIE RULES : Round 22
Venue : MCG
18th August, 1:45 PM AEST
Overview :
Collingwood have dropped to 5th on the ladder, winning only 2 of their last 5 games. The two wins came against North Melbourne and Brisbane Lions while the losses were against West Coast Eagles, Richmond and Sydney Swans.
Despite a below average run in their last 5 games, Collingwood in my opinion have done well given that they have several players out injured in recent weeks.
Port Adelaide are just hanging on to 8th spot on the ladder, winning only once in their last 5 games. Port Adelaide form heading into this game are one of the worse in the competition and their return of 1 win in their last 5 is joint last with Carlton, Gold Coast Suns, Brisbane Lions and St Kilda. Port only win during this period came against Western Bulldogs while the losses were against Fremantle, GWS, Adelaide Crows and West Coast Eagles.
Collingwood continues to be the best team in the competition with disposals count averaging almost 30 more a game than the league average. Collingwood are likely to have a huge differential in disposals in this game given their superiority in the ruck.
Having seen what happen last week after Ryder went down injured, Port may not have any solution to Grundy which could spell more first use of the ball of the Pies midfield. Port were unable to handle a Gaff and Naitanui-less West Coast and they are now up against onballers such as Pendlebury, Phillips, Adams and Sidebottom who are elite ball users.
Since Adam Treloar went down injured, the Pies seems to lack the midfield burst that Treloar brings to the team. However, Buckley has inserted Travis Varcoe for this exact reason and seems to be working. Varcoe may not be the elite midfield in what we are used to in Treloar but given the talent round Varcoe, he may just be required to do the one thing which is to burst through the pack and utilize his speed to open the play in the corridor.
Collingwood injuries at the back was clearly exploited by Lance Franklin a few weeks ago as they struggle to have to deal with a “big” forward. Port may not be able to exploit this weakness given that they are struggling to have a “big” forward of their own. With Dixon and Ryder’s out, Westhoff will likely into the ruck.
This may force Port to play short passing game and rely on their small forwards such as Wingard, Grey, Rockliff or Watts as they are without solid “big” targets up front. Given that Port are only ranked 10th in disposal count and 16th in effective disposal, play the ball short may also favour the Pies.
Verdict:
Things were looking good for Port until they lost Paddy Ryder and West Coast was completely dominated in the ruck and midfield. While Port deserve some sympathy that they were without several rotations towards the end, I believe that Ken Hinkley must be held responsible.
Sydney, Essendon and GWS were all in similar position with several players down towards the end but they slowed the game down and changed their approach while Port were just doing their “usual” thing.
There is two likely possibility, either the Port players are not at that elite level that they were unaware of the situation and could not apply some time management or Ken Hinkley may not be the right person for the job and I believe the latter is likely to be the case as his management skills in my opinion is highly questionable.
The formula is quite obviously if Port Adelaide wants final football, win both remaining games and destiny are in their hands, lose 1 and their finals destiny lies in the hand of others. Given that Geelong are odds on favourites to win both remaining games, Port cannot afford not to win against Collingwood and this is the recipe for disaster.
Injuries may have slowed Collingwood down in the past few weeks since they peak mid-way through the season but Collingwood have demonstrated their ability this season to get the results they want, especially at the MCG.
Scott Lycett is nowhere near Brodie Grundy capabilities and given that Port struggle to handle with Lycett without Ryder, I cannot see what they intend to do with Grundy. More importantly, I have absolutely zero confidence in Ken Hinkley making the right tactical decision. On this very basis, I have total confidence in Collingwood getting the job done at the MCG and pushing for a top 4 finish, possible 3rd to get a double chance.
The Pies are ranked 1st in goal accuracy and given the injuries to Port, Port may not be able to score heavily and match the Pies goal for goal. It has been almost 4 years since the Pies last won Port and its about time Collingwood pile more misery to Port by sending them on the brink of finals elimination.
Collingwood to win at $1.40 in my opinion seems to be a great value and safe bet. Cannot see Collingwood dropping this game. However, I'm going one further and say Collingwood to win comfortably and cover the points spread.
The Pick :
Collingwood win by 33 points
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Collingwood to win at $1.40 with Bet365
