AFL Aussie Rules
2018-09-06 - Richmond Tigers vs Hawthorn Hawks
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
AFL AUSSIE RULES : Finals Week 1
Venue : MCG
Thursday 6th September 2018, 7:20PM AEST
Overview :
Richmond are clear favourites for their 2nd successive flag after dominated the home and away season. The Tigers was never really challenged for their Premiership Minor from the start. Their ball pressure from last season together with fast pace attacking football have labelled the Tigers one of the Elite teams in the competition and possibly even on a verge of dominance over the next few years.
Hawthorn on the other hand may not have reached the heights of a few season ago when they collected 3 back to back Premiership Flags but Alastair Clarkson have 11 players in the starting line up that were part of the 2015 Grand Final Squad.
Damien Hardwick have caught many by surprise including me by dropping Brandan Ellis. While Ellis’s form has dropped off from last year, Ellis in my view have experience and composure to offer and this is clearly what is required in this game.
There are two massive inclusion for the Hawks this week in James Sicily and Jonathan Ceglar. Sicily is a smart player and that little bit of spark and flair when he pushes up offers plenty to this Hawks side. In defensive he positions himself well for intercepts which leads to intercept marks and plays on wisely. In attack he has the ability to kick a goal or two beyond the 50 mark but more importantly his ability to pick out the right kick inside 50.
The inclusion of Jonathan Ceglar means Alastair Clarkson has two ruck-man in his line-up Vs the sole Toby Nankervis. I believe either McEvoy or Ceglar should match Nankervis in the ruck, however the key point here is when one is at the ruck and the other pushes forward, I have doubts that the Richmond defenders are capable in a one V one contest vs either big. In worse case scenario, even if McEvoy or Ceglar fails to get a clean mark, the Hawks have small forwards that are more than capable in causing trouble should the ball bounce around.
Tom Michell had a quiet game against Sydney and a less than impressive game against St Kilda in round 22. Its rare to see Mitchell not leaving his footprints for the 3rd successive game. If Mitchell dominates the midfield and gathers 35++ disposals, the Hawks will control the pace of the game.
Dustin Martin is arguable still in the top 3 if not 5 best players in the League. His “Don’t Argue” is possible 2nd to none but his statistic in general have dipped from his Brownlow Year. He is down on disposals, marks, tackles and goals. While Martin has been more effective, you cant expect one of the best players on the team to just play effective football in a magnitude of such game. He needs to carry his team on his back, like he did last year .
Shady's Verdict:
It is very hard to go against Richmond at the MCG, who are undefeated at the MCG since 13 last year. In saying that, the Tigers of 2017 had some X factor in them and their mosquito fleet up front caught many by surprise, while in 2018 the element of surprise was no longer there but the Tigers of 2018 became a more cohesive team all round.
The second big man of Hawks in my view is likely to be one of the main factors why I’m prepared to back the Hawks. Rance and Astubury are top notch defenders and may be slightly smaller in size but they are not used to facing a ruckman directly. Rance has consistently played the sweeper role, help others by rotating 2 V 1 but it will be hard for him to do the same in this situation.
The Hawks under Alastair Clarkson are an extremely well organised team. They are one of the best structured team in the competition. The Tigers this season have relied on turnovers and breaking down opponents through fast hand balls down the corridor, exposing poorly structured teams. In the win against Sydney in round 23, we saw how well Clarkson structured his team late in the game to prevent Sydney from exiting their defensive half.
Richmond has not relied on ball possession in the past 2 seasons and relying heavily on fast efficient counter attacks. The Hawks may just be well position to halt them for their fast and efficient counter attacks with their well setup structure.
As the odds suggest, Richmond are clear favourites to win but do not hold your breath, we could be in for an upset. In the event Richmond wins, I believe it will be by a narrow margin. The Hawks have lost 4 times against a top 8 opposition this season and all 4 have been by less than the offered handicap of 17.5 points.
The Pick :
Hawks by 5 points
