AFL Aussie Rules
2018-09-08 - West Coast Eagles vs Collingwood
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
AFL AUSSIE RULES : Finals Week 1
Venue : Optus Stadium
9th September 2018, 6:10PM AWST
Overview :
Adam Simpson have done a remarkable job in guiding the Eagles to a 2nd spot finish on the ladder. I had The Eagles at the start of the season was one of the danger teams that may miss the finals, but they prove me wrong and finish 2nd.
The same could be said to Nathan Buckley who has done a fantastic job in leading Collingwood to a 3rd place finish. I thought that Buckley head was on the line last year after failing to make finals football once again but sticking with him has paid off and I believe they have a good chance in going deep into the finals, possibly even to the Grand Finals.
The Pies have started off slowly in recent weeks and they can ill afford another slow start. It will be hard for the Pies to get into the game should they allow the Eagles to take advantage of the scoreboard early on.
The major team news is Adam Treloar, Jeremy Howe and Tyson Goldsack are back into the team for the Pies while Josh Kennedy as promise by Simpson a couple of weeks ago is back for finals football.
Josh Kennedy is arguably one of the best forwards in the competition alongside Riewoldt and Franklin. However, the Eagles seems to play better with only one big forward and small forward rotating around leading up. With Kennedy back into the team alongside Darling and Vardy in the team, the Eagles forward line may at times consist of one too many big players. Kennedy and Darling are great targets to have the attacking half but they are unlikely to influence the ground ball and pick up many disposals making the other players carry their loan which could wear them out later on in the game.
Brodie Grundy will once again be the key focus of the game. With Nic Naitanui out Grundy will be up against Lycett and Vardy. Naitanui in my view will match Grundy in the ruck but Neither Lycett and Vardy in my view would match Grundy. Therefore, the Pies should get first use of the ball from center bounce.
In addition, with Gaff out suspended and Treloar back in, this gives the Pies a massive edge in the middle. The matchup in the middle between Hutchings, Yeo, Masten, Shuey and Sheed against Treloar, Pendlebury, Phillips, Adams and Sidebottom will favour the Pies.
Shady's Verdict:
I have said it right from the start, I do not think that the type of football the West Coast Eagles play are sustainable in finals football. Finals football are generally high pressure, hard contested football and more often than not, you do not have the luxury of picking a pass to the open man via kick. Spaces that you were seeing earlier in the season tends to shrink, and pressure tends to creep in leading to a miss kick or even a costly turnover.
Nathan Buckley throwing in Jeremy Howe, Goldsack and Treloar seems very risky to me but I believe this risk is worthy if it pays up they are into the Preliminary finals and if it does not, they have a 2nd chance next week Sydney or GWS. Howe in my view is the key in defense and his ability to intercept marks will make life slightly harder for Kennedy and Darling.
Treloar on the other hand will be so crucial in the Pies breaking play open in the middle. Treloar’s speed and clever ball movement alongside Pendlebury, Phillips and Sidebottom will give the Pies the extra bit in the middle.
Both sides are a high scoring team but the only major difference is Collingwood likes to dominate possession leading the league in disposal count while Eagles do not are in the bottom 3 teams in that area. Therefore, you can expect both side to do the same but what matters would be efficiency. The Pies may be the away side with a pack 50 plus thousand home fans against them, but I cannot shy away from my main believe that the Eagles can be kick as efficiency as they have been in the home and away season.
The Pies have played at Optus Stadium two weeks ago and I believe Buckley will have noted the ground conditions and sizes. The Pie to cause the shock of the round by winning in Perth!
The Pick :
Collingwood by 15 Points
