AFL Aussie Rules
2018-09-21 - Richmond Tigers vs Collingwood
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
AFL AUSSIE RULES :Preliminary Finals 1
Venue : MCG
21st September 2018, 7:50PM AEST
Overview :
It has been almost 40 years since two of the oldest clubs in the competition face one another in the finals. Richmond overwhelming favorites with plenty of rest heading into this game while not many were expecting an injury hit season for Collingwood to reach thus far.
In their two meeting this season, Collingwood was still in the game at end of three quarters but their inability to sustain the pressure by Richmond in the 4th quarter allowed the Tigers to roll them over. In round 6 this season, the Tigers was only up by 15 points but ended the game with a landslide win of 40++ points while in round 19, the Tigers was only leading by 4 points before running home with a 28 point victory.
Damien Hardwick’s side have been a very cohesive team this season and relied on the ball pressure rather than an individual brilliance. The Tigers showcase their ball pressure brilliance in the 2nd half against Hawks and that was one of the best I’ve seen all season long. They just did not allow any time for the Hawks to settle in disrupt their shape.
Before this season, Collingwood have not played finals football since 2013 and many of these young Collingwood players have yet to experience a taste of final football which was one of my biggest concern. Collingwood had a fast start against the Giants and when I thought the game would be over sooner rather than later, lack of concentration and finals experience allowed the Giants back into the game.
Having played two games this finals, I expect the Pies to settle in slightly better in this game. Nathan Buckley side is the leading team in the competition with number of disposals while Richmond are ranked 14th in the competition, only Fremantle, Carlton, Gold Coast and West Coast.
Richmond relies on high pressure football, creating turnovers and hitting opponents on the break. Buckley knows that his side would need to tie the Tigers up creating stoppages as often as possible to avoid them scoring on the bounce. Given Grundy’s ability, it would be vital for the Pies to take full advantages of the stoppages including first use of the ball of center bounces.
Brodie Grundy in my view has not peaked in the finals this season – his display has been fairly ordinary. If Grundy is to mark himself as one of the competition’s most elite ruckman then I would expect him to play an ever-bigger role this week against Nankervis. Nankervis is a decent ruckman but I would not classify him in the elite group. Therefore, Grundy would have to dominate this area to showcase his case for being one of the best ruckman in the competition.
Shady's Verdict:
For those of you who do not follow the Pies regularly, take note of Jordan De Goey. His speed may potentially cause some trouble to any defense, including the solid Tiger’s defense. De Goey speed was clearly displayed last week and his speed allowed him to created so much space and separation. In addition, De Goey has also worked on his kicking ability over summer and has improved remarkably. He has kicked more goals this season compared to his 3 previous season combined.
Having won the Coleman medal in the home and away season, Jack Reiwoldt was kept goalless against the Hawks. Jeremy Howe might be given the task to shut Reiwoldt once again and keeping Reiwoldt will be vital. While the Tigers have ability to hurt opponents from all over, limited Reiwoldt would reduce Tigers played the direct ball inside 50.
Steele Sidebottom have been superb, and his influence is key to the Collingwood’s success. With The Tigers likely to tag him for most the game it is vital for Adam Treloar to step up. Adam Treloar in my view still looks slightly off and the Pies would definitely need him to be hitting full throttle if there are to have any chance against the Tigers. It is easy to limit one player’s influence, but it is hard to limit two or more players influence while getting your own game flowing.
Since 2000, only Brisbane Road in 2001 to 2003 and Hawthorn Hawks in 2013 to 2015 have won back to back Premiership. There are many that came close but ultimately fell just short. While the Richmond are arguably the best team in the League this year, I do not believe that the Tigers are on a “dynasty” just yet.
There are all sort of rumors on fitness of Dusty Martin and I do not have any reliable source to suggest at this present time if he is fit or not. However, unless Damien Hardwick is up for some mindgames, I cannot see how a well-rested Martin should be on “light” training if he is a 100% fit.
The Tigers are overwhelming favorites in this Preliminary final and even if they are heading to their 2nd consecutive final, I’d fancy my chances on Melbourne, whom I will be backing to come up top in Perth.
It is hard to go against the Tigers on the H2H but, I believe this would be a close game and the line on the Pies is attractive. Do not hold your breath, but I wont be shocked if Collingwood edges Richmond in the final 90 seconds or after the siren.
The Pick :
Collingwood win by 5 points
