NCAA Football
2011-09-01 - UNLV Rebels at Wisconsin Badgers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football
Thursday 1 September 2011 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Wisconsin Badgers won a share of the Big Ten title last season, but it might be a little more difficult for the team to fulfil their current 10th place ranking after losing a number of players from last year. They have a chance to at least open up with a win in a home game against the UNLV Rebels.
The biggest change for the Badgers, and their success and failure, could all come down to how new QB, Russell Wilson, adjusts since transferring from North Carolina. Wilson left the program in NC because they wanted him to spend more time with the program, but Wilson plays Minor League baseball for the Colorado Rockies.
Wilson has come in and impressed his colleagues as they look to build on an 11-2 season last year. The Badgers have since lost 6 starters from the Offense and 5 from the Defense.
However, 2 key returning players are James White and Montee Bell, both players that rushed for over 900 yards each and combined for 32 TDs.
Wisconsin are dealing with a few injuries on both sides of the ball, but most of those are players that may have been used in rotation and not necessarily the potential starters.
UNLV are coming of a poor 2-11 season, their first under the Coaching of Bobby Hauck. Their averages for points scored and yards gained on Offense were amongst the lowest in the NCAA. To make matters feel worse, their Defense gave up the 5th most points in the FBS and 5th most rushing yards, not the kind of formula to deal with the White-Bell tandem.
Caleb Herring will begin the season at QB and he has some decent returning weapons in the forms of Phillip Payne and Tim Cornett, the leading receiver and rusher from last season.
While the Rebels will be expecting an improvement, Hauck is still trying to dowse enthusiasm for the coming year as he wants his young players to play without pressure.
Head to Head
This will actually be the 5th meeting between the teams since 2003, Wisconsin winning the last 3 since UNLV pulled a big upset here.
UNLV are 4-0 against the spread in the last 4 games between the schools.
Other Interesting Notes
Wisconsin are 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games as the favourite.
They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games when they are favoured by more than 10.5 points.
UNLV are 15-39-2 against the spread in their last 56 games as the road underdog.
They are 4-15-2 against the spread in their last 21 games on the road where they are given more than 10.5 points.
The Rebels are 13-27-1 against the spread in their last 41 games played in September.
They have lost their last 9 road games, being outscored an average of 45.33-10.67
Prediction
When the line first opened up, I had a feeling it may be a little too big in favour of the Badgers- the little movement suggests that may just be the case, but it has been pushed out by half a point in some places.
Wisconsin are likely to still be a strong team regardless of their players moving on from last season. I really like Russell Wilson as a QB and was impressed with his attitude while at North Carolina and it is telling that his new teammates already have built up some respect for him.
However, there could be a chance the Offense does not quite click in the manner it will later on in the season and that may give the UNLV Rebels a chance to keep it relatively close.
With a bit of continuity in their own Offense, the Rebels may be able to get at least 10-14 points on the board and that could be enough to stay within the spread.
The spread is definitely moving out to 35.5 points either way and I will pick the underdog to keep things (relatively again) tight.
The Pick :
Wisconsin Badgers 41-10 UNLV Rebels
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the UNLV Rebels + 35.5 Points @ 1.92
