Champions League
2011-09-13 - Porto vs Shakhtar Donetsk
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : Champions League Match Day 1
Tuesday 13 September 2011 - Kickoff 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Porto
Porto may have lost Andre Villa-Boas to Chelsea in the offseason, but they are hoping to continue moving along the road he set them when guiding them to a domestic double and also success in the Europa League. The team also lost their talismanic striker Falcao to Atletico Madrid, but they have been handed a Group that they will feel they can get out of and reach the last 16 of the Champions League at least.
Porto have won all 4 of the League games they have played this season as well as the domestic Super Cup. They were beaten in the European Super Cup by Barcelona, but things are still looking rosy for the side. The team top the Portuguese League being the only team to have a 100% record. Porto have won both home games they have played, scoring 6 goals and conceding 1.
Last season was the first time in a long time that Porto were not involved in the Champions League having fallen out of the top 2 places in Portugal in the 2009/10 season. That meant they played in the Europa League but made hay by going on and winning that competition. Porto finished with a 6-1-1 record at home, their only defeat coming to Sevilla and drawing with Turkish side Besiktas. They did have impressive wins over Villarreal and CSKA Moscow.
Cristian Sapunaru was injured while with Romania on international duty and may not be passed fit for this tie. Emidio Rafael is not in the squad. James Rodriguez and Hulk are expected to be the main dangers for the home side.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk are no longer the novice opponents at this level whose biggest fear for the top teams was the travelling they would have to do when going to the Ukraine between League games. Now the team are respected for their ability to beat teams both at home and away as they look to build on the UEFA Cup win of 2009 and reaching the last 8 of the Champions League last season.
One benefit the team still receives is the fact they are a lot further into their domestic season and they will hope it is that fitness that gives them an edge over Western European teams that have just got their own Leagues up and running. Shakhtar currently lead their League at home on goal difference from Dynamo Kiev, with both teams compiling 7-2-0 records. Shakhtar are 2-2-0 away from home, scoring 8 goals and conceding 4.
Shakhtar are unbeaten since being beaten by Dynamo Kiev in the Super Cup in early July. They finished with a 7-0-3 record in this competition last season, 2 of those defeats coming at the hands of the eventual winners Barcelona. Shakhtar were 3-0-2 away from home last year, and they have only lost 3 of their last 10 away games in the Champions League.
Darijo Srna, Olexandr Kucher and Vyacheslav Shevchuk were all rested in Shakhtar's last game and are expected back in the squad. They all reported back with knocks from the international games, but were most likely rested in the last game in preparation for this one.
Head to Head
These two teams have only met once before in European competition but that was back in the 1983/84 Cup Winners' Cup. On that occasion, Porto won their home game and drew in the Ukraine.
Porto are 2-0-1 at home against Ukrainian sides, Shakhtar are 3-0-2 when visiting Portugal.
Prediction
I can understand why Porto have been priced up as odds on favourites to win this match, but I still think they are very short and Shakhtar have been underestimated to at least pull a result out of the bag.
The Ukrainian team have improved in European competition, although they did take heavy defeats at Barcelona and Arsenal last season. Those sides, at the time, were amongst the better ones in Europe and I think their win at Roma, Braga and Partizan show that Shakhtar are capable of playing well away from home and getting a result at this tough stadium.
Porto might not be as ruthless in front of goal now Falcao has moved on and Shakhtar do represent a step up in class of opponent compared with Porto's domestic rivals in the main part.
I wouldn't go overboard, but picking Shakhtar on the English Handicap to avoid defeat looks the way to go considering it is priced at odds against.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Porto 1-1 Shakhtar Donetsk
