New York Jets at New England Patriots Betting pick | 2011-10-09

NFL Football

2011-10-09 - New York Jets at New England Patriots

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

New York Jets @ New England Patriots
United States: NFL Football Week 5
Sunday 9 October 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

The AFC East was supposed to be contested by the New England Patriots (3-1) and the New York Jets (2-2), but the Buffalo Bills have joined the party and the Jets look like they may be flying out of contention if they don't pick up form sooner rather than later.

After beating the Patriots here in Foxboro in the Play Offs, New York had pushed Pittsburgh all the way in the AFC Championship Game and there were real expectations on the squad this season. However, they seem to have fallen apart in the last 2 weeks as they took heavy defeats at Oakland and Baltimore and this will not be any easier for them.

The Jets Offense has really been struggling, particularly Mark Sanchez who just had an altogether horrible game in Baltimore last week. The Offensive Line is having problems keeping Sanchez upright and the Jets are really struggling to get the ball moving on the ground, putting further pressure on Sanchez to make the plays with his arm.

The absence of Nick Mangold has been attributed to the problems running the ball and it does look like he will be missing again this week. The Jets may feel they can get somewhere against the Patriots who have allowed an average of over 100 yards a game on the ground, and have a Secondary that has been really torched, giving up just under 370 yards per game through the air.

The rush Defense should get a boost from the return of Albert Haynesworth to sit alongside Vince Wilfork and really stuff the middle of the line. Wilfork has been having a great season, but the Secondary and Linebackers have a few injuries to contend with.

The Defense may be struggling to stop teams doing what they want, but the Patriots Offense led by Tom Brady have been pretty exceptional in the first 4 weeks of the season. Take out the game against Buffalo, and Brady has thrown just 1 Interception in 3 games, while Wes Welker is putting up big yards.

New England will be testing a Jets team that has only given up 180 yards per game through the air, with Darrelle Revis continuing to strand receivers on Revis Island. The Jets have a good pass rush, but the problems for them have been on the ground where they have allowed 130 yards per game, including a game against Oakland when they were destroyed by Darren McFadden.

I expect Brady will also focus on exposing Antonio Cromartie who famously talked about how much he 'hated' Brady last season and who only stoked the fires again this week.

Head to Head

The Jets came into Foxboro and out coached New England in the Play Offs last season, winning 28-21.

The regular season games were split, with each winning at home, including a 45-3 win for New England here.

New England are 4-1 straight up at home against the Jets in regular season games, and they are 3-2 against the spread in those games.

The road team is 18-7-1 against the spread in the last 26 games of the series.

New England are 3-1 against the spread this season, New York are 1-3.

Other Interesting Trends

New England are 14-4 against the spread in their last 18 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.

They are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games against teams from the AFC East.

The New York Jets are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games against teams from the AFC East.

They are 10-7 against the spread as the underdogs since 2009.

Prediction

The spread is coming down from the 9.5 points it opened as, although it still has not come down to the key number of 7. Not to worry, I like the Patriots to cover for the following reasons:

First, New England would have been devising schemes to beat the Rex Ryan coached Jets since that Play Off loss in January. The last two times they lost to the Jets, they came back and won the next game by 17 and 42 points.

Second, Tom Brady is playing some very good football and he has plenty of Offensive weapons that can win this game for them. I also expect Steven Ridley and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to have big games on the ground too.

Third, the Jets are finding it hard to run and protect the QB with their Offensive Line which is struggling at the moment. That's a lot of pressure to put on Mark Sanchez who is struggling at the moment.