NCAA Football
2011-11-05 - Louisville Cardinals at West Virginia
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 10
Saturday 5 November 2011 - Kick Off 12pm ET
4pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Big East is going through some major changes off the field with new teams expected to be invited to join the Conference at some point in the next month, while others, like the West Virginia Mountaineers (6-2), are going to be leaving it soon. They would like to win the Big East in what could be their final season in the Conference but have to beat a tough Louisville Cardinals (4-4) to move a step closer to doing so in Morgantown.
West Virginia moved to 2-1 in the Big East last week with a 10 point win over Rutgers in the heavy rain, a win that erased memories of a painful beat down suffered at the hands of Syracuse the week before. Louisville are also 2-1 in the Conference having taken advantage of Syracuse's let down spot last week with a 17 point home win.
This game should be interesting at it pits a strong Defense up against a powerful Offense. The Mountaineers have been putting up a lot of points all season behind the play of Geno Smith at QB- Smith has 20 TD passes and just 5 Interceptions on the season. The QB is in for a tough day in the office if the Cardinals Defense keeps playing to their season levels where they have allowed under 200 passing yards.
The Cardinals also get plenty of pressure on the opposition QB and have a top Defense that is allowing just 16 points per game. To make life more difficult for Smith, the Cardinals will not allow the Mountaineers to use their newly found rushing Offense effectively as they are allowing a paltry 2.8 yards per carry and will look to keep Smith and the Offense in obvious passing situations.
Louisville's problems all season have been on the Offensive side of the ball, although they did score 27 points last week which is the most they have achieved all season and represented the 3rd time in 8 games they surpassed 17 points in a game.
Teddy Bridgewater has thrown 7 TD passes and 6 Interceptions this season and he may struggle to get too much going against a West Virginia Secondary that has played well for the most part this season, although always susceptible to losing focus and allowing teams to move the chains on them. Bridgewater should get time behind his Offensive Line as the Mountaineers have struggled to get a lot of pressure on the QB throughout the season.
The key for the Cardinals will be if the Defense can stop the Mountaineers Offense and create favourable field positions for their own struggling Offense.
Josh Taylor (NG) is listed as questionable for West Virginia after suffering an injury last week in the win over Rutgers. Taylor did not come back into that game and is considered day-to-day.
Head to Head
West Virginia have won the last 4 games in the series between the schools, but they have split those games 2-2 against the spread.
The Mountaineers have failed to win their last 2 home games against the spread against Louisville, but did win their previous 2 home games.
West Virginia are 4-4 against the spread this season, Louisville are 5-3.
Other Interesting Trends
West Virginia are 3-9-1 against the spread in their last 13 games as the home favourite of 10.5 points or more.
They are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last 7 games in Conference play.
Louisville have won their last 5 games against the spread as the road underdog of 10.5 points or more.
They have won their last 4 games against the spread in Conference play.
However, the Cardinals are just 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Prediction
I am going to back the West Virginia Mountaineers to maintain their ambitions of winning the Big East and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Louisville's Defense has been very strong this season, but will be facing the most powerful Offense they have seen, one that was capable of putting up 21 points against LSU.
Second, if the Cardinals fall behind, they are going to find it incredibly hard to fight back with their Offense which struggles to score points.
Third, the fact this game is being played in Morgantown gives the Mountaineers a huge edge and will make it difficult for the Cardinals to disrupt the Offense as much as they would at home.
The Pick :
West Virginia 31-17 Louisville Cardinals
