NCAA Football
2011-11-05 - Southern Mississippi at East Carolina
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 10
Saturday 5 November 2011 - Kick Off 4pm ET
8pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is another clash between teams in the Conference USA as the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (7-1) visit Greenville to take on the East Carolina Pirates (4-4). Both sides have been playing well in the Conference and the winner of this will be in pole position to play in the Championship Game.
Both schools are in the East Division of the Conference and both have a 3-1 record coming into this game, 0.5 games ahead of Marshall in 3rd spot. That means the winner of this game will take big control of the Division and both teams have plenty of confidence coming into the game off long winning runs.
The Pirates were big winners of Tulane last week to record their 3rd consecutive win in a row, while Southern Mississippi hammered UTEP on the road to record their 6th win in a row.
Southern Mississippi have a very strong Offense that has found a decent balance on the ground and through the air and I think they are going to be able to move the chains fairly consistently in this game. Austin Davis (QB) will lead the passing game and has a decent 17 TD passes this season with 8 Interceptions, and he should be able to keep things moving as long as he is not left in 3rd and long situations.
That is where Kendrick Harvey and the running game of the Golden Eagles will come into its own as they are earning 5.1 yards per carry this season and the Pirates have struggled to stop the run all year. If Southern Mississippi can get things going as they have so far this season, that should open up the passing lanes and give Davis a chance to move the ball through the air.
East Carolina will try and counter the Golden Eagles by using their passing game to strong effect. Dominique Davis has helped the team to 312 passing yards per game this season, but it will not be easy against a Secondary that has only allowed 7 TD passes all season, while also picking off their opponents 11 times. The Secondary have only allowed 55% of passes to be completed and have managed to create an effective pass rush that will be able to take control against a Pirates Offensive Line that has struggled.
The pass rush should be given free rein to attack Davis at QB as the Defense should keep the Pirates in 3rd and long situations. This is because they have done fairly well against the run this season while East Carolina have picked up just 3.1 yards per carry.
East Carolina's attack on the ground will not be helped as Reggie Bullock (RB) is listed as questionable after missing their game last week- Bullock is the leading rusher on the team so far this season. Justin Hardy (WR), the 2nd leading receiver on the Pirates, is also questionable for this game.
Kendrick Harvey could miss out this week, and will be replaced by Jamal Woodyard. Woodyard played well as the starter last week, gaining 134 yards and a TD.
Head to Head
East Carolina shocked Southern Mississippi with a 1 point win on the road last season in a high-scoring shoot out.
They also beat the Golden Eagles when they last played here in Greenville in 2009, winning by 5 points on that occasion.
However, Southern Mississippi are 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 games in the series.
Southern Mississippi have won the last 5 games against the spread in Greenville.
East Carolina are 5-3 against the spread this season, Southern Mississippi are 6-2.
Other Interesting Trends
East Carolina are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games as the home underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record.
Southern Mississippi are 12-5 against the spread in their last 17 games as the road favourite.
They are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games in Conference play.
They have won their last 5 games against the spread following a straight up win.
Prediction
I like the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I expect the Golden Eagles to get plenty of success moving the chains against the East Carolina team, both on the ground and through the air.
Second, the Southern Mississippi Defense has been strong and have been opportunistic in grabbing Interceptions while limiting the amount of points they give away to just 18.5 per game.
Third, if the Golden Eagles can stuff the run, they could put the Pirates in the unenviable position of having to throw consistently against this pass rushing team and solid Secondary, which could lead to turnovers and short fields for Southern Mississippi to exploit.
The Pick :
East Carolina 21-31 Southern Mississippi
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles -8.5 Points @ 2.00
