Oklahoma State at Texas Tech Betting pick | 2011-11-12

NCAA Football

2011-11-12 - Oklahoma State at Texas Tech

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Texas Tech Red Raiders
United States: NCAA Football Week 11
Saturday 12 November 2011 - Kick Off 12pm ET
5pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

The Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-0) moved up the BCS Rankings last week and will be playing in the National Championship Game if they can run the table. They have some tough tests left on their schedule, including this trip to the Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-4) who have not really recovered from surprising the Oklahoma Sooners a few weeks ago.

The Cowboys are 6-0 in Conference play this season, while Texas Tech are 2-4, losing their 2 games since beating the Sooners while struggling to perform. The Red Raiders have scored 27 points combined in their last 2 games, but they have conceded at least 41 points in each of those games as the mammoth effort of being Oklahoma have been wasted.

Oklahoma State will be hoping they don't need to rely on their Offense as much as they did last week when they won a wild game with the Kansas State Wildcats in Stillwater. The Red Raiders have a decent passing Defense in terms of yards against, but they are going to have a hard time stopping the Cowboys Offense with their limited pass rush which has generated just 9 sacks this season. To make matters tougher, they are not forcing turnovers either, creating just 13 all season so I expect Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon to rack up the yards as usual through the air.

A bigger concern for Texas Tech is their rushing Defense which is allowing 5.3 yards per carry, so Joseph Randle can add to his 18 TDs on the ground this season. All in all, I find it hard to see any way the Cowboys do not move the chains easily throughout the game.

Texas Tech can live with the Oklahoma State team with their own skill on the Offensive side of the ball, although that has not been evident since winning in Oklahoma. Seth Doege, the QB, has 22 TD passes and 4 Interceptions this season and I figure he will also have success against a Cowboys Secondary that has allowed 265 yards per game through the air.

Doege will have to be careful as the Cowboys Defensive unit is very capable of creating turnovers, with 31 coming on the season, and they have a very effective pass rush that can help the team protect leads. While the Defense bends, it doesn't always break as they can stop teams with these turnovers.

The Red Raiders will look to Aaron Crawford to get himself established on the ground, but the team have struggled to find a consistent running game, going for 3.9 yards per carry. If Crawford can get himself going, it will make life that much easier for Doege and the passing game to get after the Cowboys Secondary in situations where they can use play-action and keep the team in short and manageable situations.

Eric Stephens is the usual running back but is out for the rest of the season for Texas Tech, while the team have a number of injury concerns in Defense that should be exploited by Oklahoma State.

Hubert Anyiam (WR) is out for Oklahoma State for the rest of the season- Anyiam was the 3rd leading receiver on the team before injury.

Head to Head

Oklahoma State have won the last 2 meetings in the series, both straight up and against the spread, including a 17 point win here last season.

Texas Tech had won their previous 4 home games prior to the defeat last season, although they are only 3-2 against the spread in the last 5 home games in the series.

Oklahoma State are 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 games of the series.

Texas Tech are 5-4 against the spread this season, Oklahoma State are 7-2.

Other Interesting Trends

Texas Tech are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home underdog.

They are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home underdog being given 10.5 points or more and they are 45-19-1 against the spread in their last 65 games following a straight up loss.

Oklahoma State are 24-6-1 against the spread in their last 31 games as the road favourite.

They are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road favourite of 10.5 points or more.

Prediction

I am going to back the Oklahoma State Cowboys to win this game and cover what looks like a big spread for the following reasons:

First, you know the Cowboys are going to get their points with the Offense playing the way they are, the question is whether the Texas Tech Offense have got back in sync after struggling the last 2 games.

Second, turnovers could be the key to covering this spread and the Cowboys have created many this season while getting plenty of pressure on the opposition QB. Texas Tech, on the other hand, have struggled in both of those categories.

Third, the Cowboys will not be surprised by the Red Raiders after seeing local rivals Oklahoma lose to them a couple of weeks ago, and I expect them to come out fully focused to put away their rivals as soon as possible.