NCAA Football
2011-11-18 - Oklahoma State at Iowa State Cyclones
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 12
Friday 18 November 2011 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
It's getting down to the crunch for teams chasing a place in the National Championship Game, especially for the Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-0) who are now two wins away from getting themselves into the big game. One of those is the big game against the Oklahoma Sooners, but first the Cowboys cannot underestimate the Iowa State Cyclones (5-4) in a big Friday night clash.
The Cowboys have been very impressive for much of the season and improved their record in the Big 12 to 7-0 with an absolute destruction of the Texas Tech Red Raiders on the road last weekend. The Cyclones are 2-4 in the Big 12, although they have won their last 2 Conference games coming into this one and they also have had an additional week to prepare.
Anyone who has been following College Football at all this season should know all about the Oklahoma State Offense, one that has bludgeoned teams for fun all year. Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon have combined for much of the damage through the air with 14 TDs and it is highly unlikely that they will be slowed too much by the Cyclones this week. Iowa State have been strong against the pass, but this is the best passing Offense they have faced all season while allowing over 250 passing yards to Missouri and Texas A&M.
A bigger problem for most of the season for the Cyclones Defense has been on the ground and they will not get any respite this week. While Weeden and Blackmon get the majority of plaudits, Joseph Randle continues to quietly go about his business with 21 rushing TDs. The Cowboys are averaging 5.2 yards per carry and should be able to move the chains and score points consistently in this game.
The question becomes can Iowa State keep up with the Cowboys when they have the ball themselves? The first thing I will say is that their average of 24 points per game this season will not be enough for them to cause a surprise in this one.
Oklahoma State's Defense has struggled all season, relying on building big leads which they can protect by rushing the opposition QB and using the opportunities provided to cause turnovers. Steele Jantz was the regular QB for the Cyclones, although Jared Barnett has taken some snaps recently, but neither is capable of taking part in a shoot out with the Cowboys. Combined, they have more Interceptions than TD passes.
The Cyclones Offensive Line has also struggled to protect the player under Center, and this does not bode well against the sack happy Cowboys Defense. Iowa State will look to negate the pass rush by using James White to run the ball, while Barnett provides a dual threat from the QB position.
While the Cyclones will get some success running the ball, it can be tough for teams to stay with the game plan if they fall into big holes against this powerful Offense and that is when the Oklahoma State's turnover generating Defense comes into play.
Head to Head
Oklahoma State beat Iowa State by 26 points here last season, covering the spread as the 7.5 point favourites.
That was their first win at Iowa State since 1997, although the Cowboys are 3-1 against the spread in the last 4 games in the series overall.
The favourite has won the last 6 games against the spread in the series.
Iowa State are 4-5 against the spread this season, Oklahoma State are 8-2.
Other Interesting Trends
Iowa State are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home underdog of 10.5 points or more.
They are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games in Conference play. They are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games following a 'bye' week.
Oklahoma State are 21-5-1 against the spread in their last 27 games as the road favourite. They have won their last 4 games as the road favourite of 10.5 points or more.
They are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games in Conference play.
Prediction
I am going to back the Oklahoma State Cowboys to continue their hot streak against the spread and cover the big one here for the following reasons:
First, this Offense is so good at the moment that they are capable of putting up 50+ points and that makes it hard for Offenses that choose to run first and ones that struggle moving the chains passing the ball.
Second, the Cowboys are going into a 'bye' after this game so will be fully focused to keep the voters on their side by recording another impressive win on the road.
Third, Iowa State have struggled against Big 12 opponents for the most part this season, and this is the best team they will have faced. Their inconsistent QB play could be a real hindrance if they fall behind early in this contest.
The Pick :
Iowa State Cyclones 17-51 Oklahoma State
