NCAA Football
2011-11-19 - Kentucky Wildcats at Georgia Bulldogs
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 12
Saturday 19 November 2011 - Kick Off 12:21pm ET
5:21pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Georgia Bulldogs (0-2) lost their opening 2 games of the season, including to SEC East winners last season, the South Carolina Gamecocks, but they have shown their character in coming back with 8 straight wins. The Bulldogs now meet the Kentucky Wildcats (4-6) knowing a win would secure the SEC East and a place in the Championship Game.
Georgia have gone 6-1 in Conference play this season and come into this vital game having bludgeoned Auburn by 35 points last week. Kentucky, on the other hand, have only gone 1-5 this season in the SEC, and need to win their last 2 games if they are to be Bowl eligible. The Wildcats have struggled against the better teams on their schedule, being hammered by Florida, South Carolina and Vanderbilt.
The biggest hindrance to Georgia moving the ball with consistency in this game is whether the expectations of winning the SEC East or the pressure based on that gets to the Bulldog players. Aaron Murray has been solid at the QB position, throwing 27 TDs and only 8 Interceptions and he should be placed in a position to move the ball as long as the Bulldogs can establish a running game, something I expect they will be able to do.
The Kentucky Defense has really struggled on the ground this season, giving up 4.8 yards per carry as teams have racked up just under 200 yards per game on the ground. Isaiah Crowell and Carlton Thomas should be able to keep things moving as the combined for over 250 yards on the ground last week against Auburn. The Bulldogs Offense is generating 4.3 yards per carry and I expect that number to be higher and allow Aaron Murray time to pass in short and manageable situations.
While Georgia are moving the ball consistently, Kentucky are going to have a tough time against a Bulldogs Defense that has really played well for the most part this season. Georgia are only allowing 2.9 yards per carry on the ground this year while the Wildcats have struggled to 3.6 yards per carry and that all should lead to Kentucky being in 3rd and long situations.
The Wildcats have struggled to convert on their 3rd down situations already and that could be made all the tougher as they face one of the most effective pass rushes in the nation. It won't help that the Kentucky Offensive Line has failed to protect Morgan Newton while the team have been giving the ball away far too often to be effective.
Head to Head
Georgia beat Kentucky by 13 points on the road last season, covering the 6.5 point spread as the favourite.
Kentucky actually surprised Georgia on their last visit to Athens in 2009, winning the game outright as the 10 point underdog.
The Wildcats covered the spread in that game, but had been beaten straight up and against the spread in the previous 3 games played in Athens.
Georgia are 7-3 against the spread this season, Kentucky are 4-6.
Other Interesting Trends
Georgia are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games as the home favourite of 10.5 points or more. They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games in Conference play.
Kentucky are 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 games as the road underdog. They are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games in Conference play.
Prediction
I am going to back the Georgia Bulldogs to cover this very big spread for the following reasons:
First, Georgia should be able to move the ball at will in this game, and the only thing that can stop them scoring plenty of points is if they feel too much pressure of trying to win the SEC East.
Second, Kentucky have really struggled in games in the SEC this season, losing them by an average of 32 points per game, while the likes of Florida, South Carolina and Vanderbilt all held their Offense to 10 points or less.
Third, turnovers have really hurt the Wildcats and they could really suffer a blow-out if they give the Bulldogs short fields.
The Pick :
Georgia Bulldogs 48-10 Kentucky Wildcats
