NCAA Football
2011-11-19 - Clemson Tigers at North Carolina State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 12
Saturday 19 November 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The North Carolina State Wolfpack (5-5) entertain the Clemson Tigers (9-1) in an ACC game as the latter complete their schedule before they play their Championship Game on December 3rd. Clemson had to fight back from a deficit to beat Wake Forest last time out which secured them the ACC Atlantic Division.
Clemson played really well in the ACC this season, compiling a 6-1 record and they are likely to be playing Virginia Tech on December 3rd in the Championship Game with the bonus of earning a spot in one of the major Bowl games. North Carolina State have been up and down all season, going 2-4 in the ACC, and they showed the worst side of their game in a disappointing loss to Boston College in their last game.
The Tigers will be hoping for a much better performance than in their game against Wake Forest, although they showed plenty of heart and character in coming back to secure the win that secured the Coastal Division. Tahj Boyd should find some success throwing the ball in this game, although he will need to protected against the strong pass rush the Wolfpack can generate.
The Offense will look to slow down the pass rush by using Andre Ellington to run the ball and keep the Defense honest. North Carolina State have been stout against the run this season, giving up just 3.8 yards per carry, but it will be up to Ellington and the Tigers to try and keep Boyd in manageable situations for them to move the chains with consistency.
North Carolina State will concede points and it is up to them to try and keep pace with Clemson. The Wolfpack have really struggled to get an effective running game going, having earned just 3.1 yards per carry this year, although they should have more success against a Tigers team that has conceded 4.7 yards per carry. This could be the key to their game plan to keep the chains moving consistently and scoring enough points to keep up.
If the Wolfpack can earn some tough yards on the ground, it will give Mike Glennon a chance to make plays with his arm in what has been a mixed bag of a season. Glennon has 20 TD passes and 10 Interceptions, but he should be able to operate in short and manageable situations if the running game can be established. It will also be important for North Carolina State to keep out of obvious passing situations as the Offensive Line has struggled to protect Glennon all year.
Head to Head
Clemson beat North Carolina State by 1 point last season, although it was the Wolfpack that covered the spread as the 3.5 point underdogs.
Clemson have won 7 in a row in the series, including 3 in a row in North Carolina State.
The Tigers are actually 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 visits to North Carolina State.
The road team is 13-3 against the spread in the last 16 games in the series.
North Carolina State are 3-6-1 against the spread this season, Clemson are 7-3.
Other Interesting Trends
North Carolina State are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as the home underdog.
They are 20-9-2 against the spread in their last 31 games against a team with a winning record.
Clemson are 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games as the favourite between 3.5 and 10 points.
Prediction
I am going to back the Clemson Tigers to still be playing hard even though they have secured the ACC Coastal Division, and I think they will cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Clemson have got a lot of Offensive talent in their team and are capable of quick strike TDs, something that could make it hard for the Offensively challenged North Carolina State to keep up with in a shoot out.
Second, the Tigers will not want to lose momentum as they get ready for a Championship Game and will not want to lose to a local rival.
Third, Clemson have a fantastic recent record in North Carolina State, winning their last 3 games all by double-digits.
The Pick :
North Carolina State 21-31 Clemson Tigers
