NCAA Football
2011-11-19 - Penn State at Ohio State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 12
Saturday 19 November 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This week we have two schools competing against one another in a season where controversy has completely overshadowed things for them. The Ohio State Buckeyes (6-4) were always going to have a tough year when a number of players were suspended for team violations of NCAA rules, but that has been completely forgotten since the scandal at Penn State (8-2) erupted a couple of weeks ago.
Both teams are still fighting to claim the Big Ten Leaders Division and take part in the first Big Ten Championship Game. Penn State lead the Division with their 5-1 record but have two tough road games to negotiate in the next couple of games, while Ohio State are 3-3 and need to win their last two games and hope Wisconsin can beat Penn State but loss to Illinois this week.
The sex abuse allegations made against Jerry Sandusky, a former Penn State assistant, led to the firing of Joe Paterno as Head Coach before the loss to Nebraska last week which has opened up the Leaders Division for Wisconsin. The players have already been going through an emotional time, and will now have to deal with the news that JoePa has treatable lung cancer.
Penn State have really struggled to get things going Offensively this season and that does not look likely to change against an Ohio State Defense that has been tough to play against. The Buckeyes only allow 3.4 yards per carry on the ground and should be good enough to limit Penn State on the ground considering the Nittany Lions have not really established a consistent running game.
That means it is likely to be on Matt McGloin's shoulders to move the ball with any consistency this week, but he is only completing 54% of his passes and he could find it tough to get things going against this Defense without the aid of a running game. Ohio State have also been very good at getting pressure on the opposition QB, and they could have some success doing that this week if they can keep Penn State in obvious passing situations.
Ohio State have similar issues as Penn State in that their Offensive output has not matched their Defensive efforts so far this year. They have been effective running the ball, especially with the dual threat provided by Braxton Miller at QB, although they will face a big challenge this week against a Penn State Defense that is allowing just 3.2 yards per carry.
Much like Penn State, the Buckeyes will need to establish their running game as they have not got the productivity through the air to hurt the Nittany Lions. Miller has 8 TDs and just 3 Interceptions, but his Offensive Line has struggled heavily all year and they need to stay out of obvious passing situations. Running the ball effectively will also open the chance for the play-action and negate the poor protection offered by the O-Line so far.
Head to Head
Ohio State beat Penn State by 24 points at home last season, covering the spread in the process, but the team is much changed since then.
The Buckeyes are 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games in the series.
The home team is 10-3 against the spread in the last 13 games in the series.
Penn State are 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games in Ohio.
Ohio State are 5-5 against the spread this season, Penn State are 2-7-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Ohio State are 16-5 against the spread in their last 21 games as the home favourite.
They are 22-7-1 against the spread in their last 30 games following a straight up loss.
Penn State are 3-13 against the spread in their last 16 games as the road underdog.
They are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Prediction
I am going to back the Ohio State Buckeyes to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Penn State have been going through some real tough emotions over the last 10 days while the players now have to face the news that JoePa is fighting cancer, although it is treatable.
Second, the Nittany Lions have had an awful time in recent visits to Ohio State.
Third, Ohio State will be the more desperate team this week as they HAVE to win if they want to still be alive in the Leaders Division, while Penn State might be looking ahead to the game against Wisconsin which is likely going to decide who wins the Leaders Division.
The Pick :
Ohio State 20-13 Penn State
