NCAA Football
2011-12-03 - Wyoming at Colorado State
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, December 3rd, 2011, 2:00PM US
(7:00PM GMT)
PREVIEW
Last years meeting saw Wyoming destroy visiting Colorado State 44-0. Wyoming are now the visitors and have been installed as favourites of 5.5 points, well short of a TD. Is the gap really that close?
Wyoming are 7-4 for the season, while Colorado State are limping towards the end of the season at 3-8. Colorado State are scoring on average 6 points less than Wyoming and giving up on average 4.5 more. Colorado State are at home, and the price should have factored in 3 points for that advantage but it really doesn't seem to be one. You see, Colorado State are just 1-4 at home this season, worse than their away mark of 2-4! Wyoming have a 3-2 winning record on the road.
Wyoming have a truly impressive freshman QB in Brett Smith, who is ranked 32nd in the country in total offence. He is averaging 260 yards per game and with 16 TDs and just 6 interceptions in his 2,304 yards at a 61% completion, he is the 2nd best freshman QB in the country!
Colorado State also have a freshman QB, Garrett Grayson. However, he is only playing because the regular QB, Pete Thomas, is injured. Grayson has thrown for the Rams the last 2 weeks but has not looked impressive. Adding to his woes is a no good offensive line that simply cannot protect the passer. The Rams are giving up almost 3 sacks per game and are ranked 7th in the MWC and 104th in the country in that department. Last week, the Falcons were able to get to and sack Grayson 4 times.
Wyoming are in a great spot here, off a 36-14 beating at the hands of Boise State. Wyoming are a good side this year, and are 3rd in the MWC behind just TCU and Boise State. A bounceback win here against Colorado State would give them a 5-2 conference record, bettering their 5-3 finish a few years ago. There should be no lack of motivation here to finish the regular season strong and look ahead to their bowl game.
BETTING VERDICT
Grayson isn't anywhere near as good as Smith and that will be the difference. I see Wyoming winning this by at least 10. Take the Cowboys to cover.
The Pick :
Wyoming -5.5
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Wyoming -5.5 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
