NFL Football
2011-12-11 - San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 14
Sunday 11 December 2011 - Kick Off 4:05pm ET
9:05pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The San Francisco 49ers (10-2) have already secured the NFC West, but still have some goals to achieve, for example securing home field advantage for the Divisional Round at the very least. They have a game lead over the New Orleans Saints in that sense, so they cannot afford to drop a game here. They face the Arizona Cardinals (5-7) who have been playing better of late and have some key players back to a healthy status.
Arizona have won 4 of their last 5 games coming into this one, although their one loss came at the hands of the 49ers. 3 of those wins have come as the underdog and they should be keen to knock a Divisional rivals hopes in front of their own fans.
It won't be easy though as they face the San Francisco Defense that comes in off a shut out posted against the St Louis Rams last week. The Cardinals Offensive Line has struggled to protect whoever has been behind Center this year and they face a fierce pass rush. Kevin Kolb was back last week and he will have his work cut out to keep things going if the running game is not working.
And it will be tough for Chris Wells to do that this week as the 49ers have only allowed 3.3 yards per carry on the year. Patrick Willis does miss out for the 49ers this week, but they shut down Steven Jackson and the Rams last week so this could be a long day for Wells too.
The one thing Arizona can look at is the way they did give the 49ers a hard time on Offense when they first met this season, limiting them to a lot of FGs and being stout when it mattered. However, it will still be tough for them to keep the 49ers from moving the chains either through Frank Gore and the rushing game, or with the efficient Alex Smith throwing the ball.
Arizona's Secondary is playing a lot better in the last few games than they have this season, but they may be forced to load the box if Frank Gore gets going and that will mean the big receivers can make plays in man coverage in the Secondary. If the Cardinals can limit Gore on the ground, they will be able to at least disrupt the passing game with their own pass rush and that could at least keep this game closer than last time.
Head to Head
San Francisco have won the last 5 games in the series between the teams, including the last 2 in Arizona.
The 49ers are 7-1 against the spread in the last 8 games in the series. They have also won the last 5 games against the spread in games played in Arizona.
Arizona are 7-5 against the spread this season, San Francisco are 10-1-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Arizona are 18-7-1 against the spread in their last 26 games as the home underdog given between 3.5 and 10 points.
San Francisco are 2-6-1 against the spread in their last 9 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They have won their last 4 games against the spread against teams from the NFC West.
Prediction
I am going to back the San Francisco 49ers to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think the Defense is good enough to shut down the Arizona Offense for the most part and will give the Offense the chance to cover.
Second, Arizona put in a huge effort in the second half to come back and beat Dallas last week and may not be able to put in the same kind of effort this week.
Third, San Francisco know they are very close to securing at least the Number 2 seed in the NFC and earning a bye to the Divisional Round of the Play Offs and will not want to give New Orleans confidence by losing this week.
The Pick :
Arizona Cardinals 17-23 San Francisco 49ers
