Newcastle United vs Swansea Betting Pick | English Premier

English Premier

2011-12-17 - Newcastle United vs Swansea

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Newcastle United v Swansea
Football: English Premier League
Saturday 17 December 2011 - Kick Off 3pm

Newcastle United

An injury crisis at St James' Park (this venue will always be known as this to me) means the bubble has slightly burst for Alan Pardew and his Newcastle United side after a blistering start to the new season. They were never likely to finish in the top 4, but they need to arrest their slide back towards the rest of the pack by picking up results over this Christmas period.

The Magpies fell down to 7th in the Premier League following their 4-2 loss to Norwich City last weekend and they have slipped 5 points behind Tottenham in 4th place, while Stoke in 8th have moved to within 5 points of Newcastle themselves. The team are 4-2-1 at home this season, scoring 10 goals and conceding 8.

As I said, the injuries seem to be taking their toll on a side that has now picked up just 1 point from their last 12 available, although they have had some tough games against the likes of Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea. Newcastle lost 0-3 in their last home game, the first time they have failed to score at home since their first game of the season.

It seems Alan Pardew will once again be missing a number of defenders with Fabricio Coloccini, Mike Williamson and Steven Taylor all missing. Danny Guthrie is out until the New Year while Dan Gosling is suspended. Cheik Tiote remains a major doubt having missed a few games, while rumours persist that he will move on in the January transfer window.

Swansea

Swansea are enjoying a decent start to their inaugural season in the Premier League and they moved away from a bad run of results with a decent win over Fulham last week. Brendan Rodgers has his side playing some very eye pleasing football, but they still look a little short of goals, something they may well address in the January transfer window.

The win over Fulham means Swansea are now up to 11th in the Premier League, but they remain just 5 points better off than Wigan in the final relegation position. The Swans have been very good at home all season, but they are just 0-2-5 away from the Liberty Stadium, scoring 6 goals and conceding 18. Only Blackburn have conceded more away goals so far this season.

Swansea lost their last away game 4-2 at Blackburn Rovers last time out, but they had avoided defeat in their previous 2 away games. The team have conceded 2 goals in all but 2 away games so far this season, but they have at least scored in 5 of their last 6 games.

Angel Rangel is out of action for Swansea until the end of the calender year, but there are no other injury concerns coming into this game.

Head to Head

Newcastle United last met Swansea in the 2009/10 season with the Magpies beating the Swans 3-0 here.

That is their only meeting at this ground since 1995.

Prediction

I have changed my mind about this game a couple of times if I am honest as both teams do put doubts in my mind.

Swansea were thrashed at Blackburn in their last away games, but they have performed very well in their previous 2 away games, particularly at Anfield where they could have earned 3 points against Liverpool.

Their lack of a goalscorer really hurts a team that has plenty of possession of the ball regardless of who they play, while their defence has really struggled to keep things tight away from home, a far cry from their record in front of their own fans.

Newcastle themselves look like they may have hit a barrier of late, with just 1 point earned from their last 12 on offer, and their defence has plenty of problems with 3 centre halves all likely missing from this game.

Initially I thought the 'Under 2.5 Goals' could be the call here, especially with the possession Swansea are likely to enjoy coupled with their lack of goals. However, the Swans have been finding the net with more frequency in their away games of late and I am going to take them to continue Newcastle's poor run of form.

I don't think the home side should be priced at odds-on against a team that had begun to find their feet away from home. At odds against, I will take Swansea to earn a positive result.

The Statistics :

NEWCASTLE LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-12-03	L	0-3	H v Chelsea
	2011-11-05	W	2-1	H v Everton
	2011-10-22	W	1-0	H v Wigan
	2011-10-16	D	2-2	H v Tottenham
	2011-09-24	W	3-1	H v Blackburn
	2011-08-28	W	2-1	H v Fulham

SWANSEA LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-12-03	L	4-2	A v Blackburn
	2011-11-05	D	0-0	A v Liverpool
	2011-10-22	D	2-2	A v Wolves
	2011-10-15	L	3-1	A v Norwich
	2011-09-24	L	4-1	A v Chelsea
	2011-09-10	L	1-0	A v Arsenal