Ohio University at Utah State Aggies Betting pick | 2011-12-17

NCAA Football

2011-12-17 - Ohio University at Utah State Aggies

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Utah State Aggies v Ohio University Bobcats
United States: NCAA College Football Bowl Game
Saturday 17 December 2011 - Kick Off 5:30pm ET
10:30pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

The Bowl season is beginning and this is the second of 35 games due to be played in the coming weeks. The Utah State Aggies (7-5) after finishing 3rd in the WAC and face the Ohio University Bobcats (8-4) who lost the Championship Game in the MAC.

Bowl games can be a little hard to predict as motivation of teams can fluctuate while this is the time of year when players can be suspended for failing to pass their academic requirements. There is also the issue of playing in places where teams do not particular want to be, for example the Ohio punter, Paul Hershey, was openly critical of having to play in Idaho on his own Twitter account.

That being said, these games can be fairly interesting in the most part and this looks like being one of those high scoring affairs that will at least keep the fans entertained.

Utah State will come into this one with a bit of confidence that has increased with each win in their 5 game winning run to end the season. The team have not been one to blow out opponents, but that kind of resolve can only help in thinking it is their time to earn a big Bowl win.

It will be interesting to see how the Aggies Offense does against this Ohio Defense as it seems their strengths match up against one another. Utah State have been very strong on the ground, going at 5.7 yards per clip, but they face a Defense that has only allowed 3.7 yards per carry this year. Robert Turbin has been the man to carry the load for the Aggies which are ranked at 6th in the nation for rushing yards per game and I can imagine a lot of the load will be on the running back to open up the passing lanes.

Adam Kennedy is the likely starter at QB for the Aggies and he should have some success against this Secondary if he is kept in short and manageable situations. The Offensive Line has protected the QB fairly well for most of the year and Kennedy only threw 4 Interceptions with his 10 TD passes and that should allow Utah State to keep the ball moving up the field and be able to score points.

On the other side of the ball, Ohio University will be facing the best Defense, at least statistically, in the WAC this year. The Aggies, like the Bobcats, have been strong against the run for the most part this year although they will be presented a challenge by the 4.8 yards per carry earned by Ohio.

A lot of that is down to the fact that Tyler Tettleton is a dual threat from behind Center, although he is still predominantly a passer. Tettleton has 9 rushing TDs this year, but also has thrown 26 TD passes with only 10 Interceptions and he should have a good match up with this Secondary in this game.

The Utah State Defense has allowed 240 yards per game through the air, although they can generate a little pass rush that will at least keep Tettleton on his toes. They have struggled to turn the ball over though and that could lead to extended chances for the Ohio University Offense. As I said earlier, Utah State did have the best Defense in the WAC this season, although that is only ranked at Number 50 in the nation so Ohio should be able to match scores.

Head to Head

This is only their 2nd ever meeting- the first ended in a baseball score of 5-0 to Ohio University in terrible conditions in 1994.

Utah State are 6-6 against the spread this season, Ohio University are 6-7.

Other Interesting Trends

Ohio are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games as the underdog... That record is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the underdog of between 0.5 and 3 points.

Utah State are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games against a non-Conference opponent.

They are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.

They are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games following a straight up win.

Prediction

I am going to pick the underdog to win this game outright, despite the fact Ohio University lost their last game against Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game. I like the Bobcats for the following reasons:

First, Ohio University have been stout against the run this year and they could get Turbin bogged down and force the Aggies to throw to ball the move the chains, something they have not been great at.

Second, I think the Bobcats have more ways to move the chains and that could pose problems for this Defense, particularly the Secondary that has struggled anyway.

Third, there has to be some big motivation for this group of players to erase the Bobcats 0-5 all time Bowl record.