NCAA Football
2011-12-22 - Arizona State at Boise State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA College Football Bowl Game
Thursday 22 December 2011 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
I can guarantee that the Boise State Broncos (11-1) did not expect to be going to Las Vegas before Christmas to take part in the Maaco Bowl when the season began back in September. For the second straight season, the Broncos have effectively missed out on a potential BCS Bowl game because of a missed field goal and it will be interesting to see what kind of motivation they have.
They face the Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) whose own motivation may be in question as they will be coached for the final time by Dennis Erikson who was fired on November 28th after a poor end to the season, but has been given a chance to end his career here in a Bowl game.
The Broncos played in this Bowl game last season, but they would have most likely been playing for the National Championship if they had not lost by 1 point to the TCU Horned Frogs. Boise State managed to up their game for this last year, beating Utah by 23 points, and they will have a chance to send Kellen Moore off on a high note in his final College appearance.
I expect Moore will be looking forward to taking on this Secondary, one that has given up 270 yards per game through the air this year. Moore has thrown 41 TD passes and 7 Interceptions and I expect he will be adding a few more to his record this year. Arizona State do generate an effective pass rush, but Boise State have had one of the best Offensive Lines in the nation and they have given Moore all sorts of time to pick apart opponents.
The Broncos should be able to do what they want against this Defense as Doug Martin has provided an effective balance off the ground and goes up against a Defense that has allowed 4.3 yards per carry. Add to this the fact that Vontaze Burfict, the best LB on the Defense, is likely to be sitting for much of this game, and I think the Broncos have their way with the Sun Devils.
Arizona State will look to keep up with Boise State and I think they will at least achieve that for some time in this game. Boise State's Defense played well for the most part this year but face an Offense that put up 310 yards per game through the air. However, Brock Osweiler has thrown half as many Interceptions as he has TD passes (12-24) this year and faces a Secondary that has been able to turn the ball over.
The Offensive Line has also had a few issues protecting Osweiler and will look to Cameron Marshall to at least keep things moving somewhat on the ground. Marshall has helped the Sun Devils go for 4.2 yards per carry, but Boise State have been effective at slowing down running games and all this could make it tough for Arizona State to keep up with Kellen Moore and the Broncos Offense.
Head to Head
The schools have only met once before, with the Arizona State Sun Devils blowing out Boise State back in 1996.
Boise State are 4-8 against the spread this season, Arizona State are 3-8-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Boise State are 25-12-1 against the spread in their last 38 games against non-Conference rivals.
They are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 Bowl games.
They have lost their last 6 games against the spread when favoured by 10.5 points or more.
Arizona State are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as the underdog of 10.5 points or more.
They are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 Bowl games.
Prediction
I am going to back the Boise State Broncos to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think there is enough motivation for Boise State to make a statement after they criticised the BCS system and they want to send Kellen Moore off with a big win.
Second, Boise State were questioned about their motivation last season when in this Bowl game, but they won going away against Utah.
Third, Arizona State will be missing their best defender in all likelihood and I am not sure how much effort they are going to put in for Dennis Erikson who is leaving after this game.
Fourth, I think it is going to be very tough for the Sun Devils to keep up with Kellen Moore in this game and I can see the Broncos creating a couple of turnovers that allows them to move away from Arizona State in the second half.
The Pick :
Boise State 48-31 Arizona State
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Boise State Broncos -13.5 Points @ 1.92
