NFL Football
2011-12-24 - Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 16
Saturday 24 December 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
At one stage this season, it seemed the revitalised Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) were going to comfortably make the Play Offs as the schedule had been fairly kind to them. However, they find themselves in a tough spot mainly due to being in the same Division as Pittsburgh and Baltimore, although they will make it into the post-season if they win their final 2 games.
They entertain an Arizona Cardinals (7-7) team that still has the smallest of possibilities of making it into the Play Offs as a Wild Card team and one that is really playing very well at this moment.
Earlier this season, I would have really liked Andy Dalton's chances of torching the Cardinals Secondary, but Arizona are much improved on that front as Patrick Peterson's form has improved. That doesn't mean they will be able to shut down the Bengals completely as AJ Green is a big target and I expect he will make some great catches to keep the chains moving. Dalton may not get a lot of time to throw though, as the Cardinals have really been effective at getting after the QB, so Cincinnati will need their running game working.
That itself won't be that easy as Cedric Benson has not been consistent on the ground and goes up against a tough Arizona Defense that allows just 4 yards per carry. Overall, it looks like it could be a tough test for the rookie QB who has hit the wall a little bit of late and the Bengals may find it hard to consistently get things going here.
Arizona have not named a starter for the week as Kevin Kolb recovers from a concussion, but either Kolb or John Skelton should be able to earn some success against a Secondary that has struggled ever since Leon Hall was injured. Skelton is 4-1 as a starter for Arizona this season and whoever is at QB should be able to find Larry Fitzgerald and Early Doucet for big gains through the air.
However, the Offensive Line may struggle to protect the QB if they cannot keep the pass rush honest by running the ball effectively. Chris Wells has been playing well, while the Bengals have not been as strong against the run as they were earlier this season. That should give Skelton or Kolb a chance to move the chains from short and manageable situations and give the Cardinals a chance to score points.
Another area that Arizona could really take advantage of is the special teams- the Cardinals have found a great return man in Patrick Peterson and he has been providing decent starting field position which should also give the team a chance to get points on the board.
Head to Head
Arizona beat Cincinnati outright when they last met one another, that game coming in 2007 and played here in Ohio. The Cardinals had been set as 3 point underdogs in that game.
The Cardinals are 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games in the series between the teams, although they do only play once every 4 years in the regular season.
Cincinnati are 7-5-2 against the spread this season, Arizona are 8-6.
Other Interesting Trends
Cincinnati are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Arizona are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games as the road underdog being given between 3.5 and 10 points.
Prediction
I am going to back the Arizona Cardinals to at least keep this game close for the following reasons:
First, they have been playing very well recently and have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games.
Second, Cincinnati have really struggled in games where the expectation is on them to win.
Third, I think the Bengals could struggle to score a lot of points in this game and that means the 4 points we are getting on Arizona are potentially a lot in a low-scoring game.
Fourth, Arizona will be playing on the East Coast in an early game for the 4th time this season- they have covered the spread the previous 3 occasions.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Cincinnati Bengals 17-14 Arizona Cardinals
