Champions League
2012-03-28 - Marseille vs Bayern Munich
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Champions League, Quarter Final First Leg
Wednesday 28 March 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Marseille
Marseille may have reached the Quarter Final of the Champions League for the first time since winning the European Cup in 1993, but they are unlikely to be playing in this competition next season without winning it due to a terrible run of form back in France. They will need to reverse all of that as they play one of the favourites for the Champions League this season.
The team find themselves in mid-table in France and are 13 points off the Champions League spots, while even getting into Europe will be tough for them here on out. For a team that got through to the last 8, Marseille have a mixed record in the tournament this season, compiling a 4-1-3 record. They are just 2-0-2 at home, although one of those wins came against Inter Milan in the last Round who they beat on away goals.
They drew 1-1 at Nice at the weekend, but that extended their run to 8 games in all competitions since they last won a game. They have drawn their last 2 games after a run of 6 consecutive losses and Marseille have lost their last 2 home games and have won just 1 in their last 5 at home.
Steve Mandanda and Souleymane Diawara are both suspended for this game with Elinton Andrade deputising in goal. Andre Ayew has admitted he is playing through the pain at the moment and he will continue to do so rather than risk surgery that would end his season, while Loic Remy is going to need a late fitness test.
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich's main ambition this season was to play in the Champions League Final which is going to be held in their home stadium, and that may have contributed to them taking their eye off the ball in the Bundesliga where they trail Borussia Dortmund by 5 points.
The team have a 6-3-4 record away from home domestically where they have scored 21 goals and conceded 13. Their form in the Champions League has been strong in the most part as Bayern have a 5-1-2 record, one of those losses coming when they played a weakened team at Manchester City, the other in the last Round at Basel although they overturned that with a 7-0 home win. Bayern are 1-1-2 away from home this season in the competition.
Bayern have won 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions, the other being a draw that ended with them winning on a penalty shoot-out. They have won just 1 of their last 5 away games in all competitions and they have actually failed to score in 4 of those games.
Bastian Schweinsteiger has travelled with the squad to France but may have to settle for a place on the bench. Daniel Van Buyten is a long-term absentee for the Bavarian giants.
Head to Head
This is the first time these two giants of European football will be meeting in a competitive game.
Marseille did beat Borussia Dortmund, the Bundesliga leaders, twice in the Group Stage of the Champions League this season.
Prediction
I think it is next to impossible to pick Marseille to win this game considering the form they have shown in their last few games, losing 6 in a row in all competitions and the last 2 at home.
In saying that, I don't think it gets much easier suggesting Bayern Munich at odds on to win this game considering they have won just 1 of their last 5 away games in all competitions, and they have failed to score in 4 of those games.
The one thing that does stand out to me is that Marseille games in the Champions League are generally low-scoring events. They did beat Borussia Dortmund 3-0 here, but that is the only game in their last 8 at home in the Champions League that has seen more than 1 goal scored.
With Bayern having a tough time for goals themselves, I think we could get another low-scoring game as the home side will be quite happy to settle for not conceding a goal here before the trip to Munich next Tuesday.
Bayern are the more likelier winners in terms of form, but the 3.50 on offer for 1 or fewer goals to be scored is the angle I will be playing.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Marseille 0-0 Bayern Munich
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll take Under 1.5 Goals in Game @ 3.50 (Ladbrokes)
