English Premier
2012-04-06 - Swansea vs Newcastle United
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Friday 6 April 2012 - Kick Off 4:30pm
This game is live on TV
Swansea
Swansea's good run of form hit a couple of major obstacles as they were beaten in back to back games against Everton and at Tottenham Hotspur, but take nothing away from what has been a special season all around. Brendan Rodgers is going to be one of the most sought after managers in the Premier League come the end of season as he has earned plaudits for the results and performances his side have conjured up this season.
The defeat at White Hart Lane on Sunday afternoon left the Swans in 11th place in the Premier League, but a good end to the season will almost certainly see them push into the top half of the table. It says a lot that they are only 4 points behind Everton in 7th spot, while only a point away from the usual safety mark of 40 points. They are 6-6-3 at home, scoring 19 goals and only conceding 12, giving them the joint second best home defensive record in the League so far.
The back to back defeats I mentioned stopped a run of 3 consecutive Premier League games for Swansea and they will look to get back on the horse at the Liberty Stadium. They have actually won just 1 of their last 4 home games in the League, and the defeat to Everton means they have lost 2 of their last 3 here.
Steven Caulker will return to the squad having been ineligible to play his parent club last weekend, but Kemy Agustien is out until next week at the earliest.
Newcastle United
Alan Pardew made a point of mentioning that his team has progressed a such a rate that they are now in a position he was not expecting until the 2012/13 season at the earliest. With a place in Europe close to being in their grasp, Pardew has urged his Newcastle United players to grab the opportunity with both hands.
When Pardew talks about Europe, he makes it clear that is the Europa League and not the Champions League, but 6th placed Newcastle United are just 5 points behind Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur in the final two Champions League places. The Magpies will look to improve their 6-3-6 away record this season, scoring 22 goals and conceding 27.
3 consecutive Premier League wins was just the reaction the management were looking for since Newcastle conceded a 93rd minute winner to Arsenal a few weeks ago. These wins have also stopped a run of 4 League games without a victory as Newcastle close on the top 4 in the table. They beat West Brom 1-3 in their last away game in the League, after being on a run of 5 defeats from their previous 6 on their travels in all competitions.
Fabricio Coloccini is out so the same back 4 that started in the win over Liverpool look set to go here. Danny Guthrie is the latest to join an ever-growing injury list and will miss out along with Gabriel Obertan, Leon Best and Peter Lovenkrands.
Head to Head
These two teams played out a 0-0 draw at St James' Park earlier this season.
They last met here in the 2009/10 season when they drew 1-1 as Andy Carroll earned Newcastle United a late point with an 87th minute equaliser.
Prediction
This is a tough game to predict a winner from as all three results are very conceivable for me, but I think I may have found a pick that could be a bit of value, but only for a small interest.
That pick is Newcastle United to score at least 2 goals here at 2.88 and I have a few reasons for liking this pick.
Newcastle have been in very good form recently and they will have the pace to really hurt Swansea on the break, especially considering the home team will be expected to attack, even in their controlled manner. The Magpies have found another dangerous striker in Cisse to complement Demba Ba and Hatem Ben Arfa and they showed how deadly they can be on the break at West Brom in a 1-3 win recently.
The team have also reached this number of goals in 5 of their last 8 away games in the Premier League, including on 2 occasions when they actually lost the game.
Swansea do have a very good defensive record on paper, but those statistics don't point out that this aspect has got a little bit harder for them in recent games. In fact, 8 of the 12 home goals that Swansea have conceded this season have come in the last 5 games, and 3 of their last 5 opponents have managed to grab at least 2 goals here.
With the onus on the home side to attack, it could play into the Newcastle United hands and I think the price is a little overinflated as it looks more like looking at a season form for Swansea rather than recent results at the Liberty Stadium.
The pace Newcastle have in the front three should cause problems and hopefully the front two can continue their efficiency in front of goal and grab a couple in Wales on Good Friday.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Swansea 2-2 Newcastle United
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll take Newcastle United Over 1.5 Total Goals @ 2.88 (Coral)
