Europa League
2012-04-19 - Sporting Lisbon vs Athletic Bilbao
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Europa League Semi Final First Leg
Thursday 19 April 2012 - Kick Off 8:05pm
This game is live on TV
Sporting Lisbon
Sporting Lisbon will be looking to return to the Europa League Final for the first time since the 2005 season when they finished Runners-Up, but they are the outsiders to do so. Even though they beat Manchester City en route to this Semi Final, Sporting are perhaps still a little under-estimated.
It looks like the team will be playing in this competition again next season regardless of whether they win the Europa League this season as they sit 4th in the Portuguese domestic League. It looks unlikely that Sporting can catch Sporting Braga in the final Champions League spot as they still have 8 points to make up on them. They are 8-3-3 in the Europa League this season, winning all 7 games played here.
The team have won 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions after losing back to back away games at Manchester City and Gil Vicente. Sporting have been very impressive at home, winning their last 8 here in all competitions. Their results have been based on a strong defence that has only conceded 1 goal in those 8 wins, covering the attack which has only scored more than 1 goal in 2 of their last 9 home games.
Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao have really made a name for themselves in Europe this season with some expressive football that has led to a number of positive results and high-scoring, entertaining games. They will be most known in England for their dismantling of Champions-elect Manchester United in the last 16 when the 5-3 aggregate win did not do them justice.
Regardless of their impressive performances in the Europa League, it is telling that they still have not secured their place in a European competition for next season via their League form, although they will get a place in this competition after reaching the Final of the Copa Del Rey. Athletic Bilbao are still 6 points behind a potential Champions League spot with 5 La Liga games to play. They are 8-3-2 in the Europa League this season, going 4-0-2 in their away games.
Athletic are unbeaten in their last 4 games in all competitions, and have only lost 1 of their last 7 games, that defeat coming at Barcelona. The team have only won 2 of their last 7 away games in all competitions, both of those coming in the Europa League, and they are on a stunning run of conceding at least 2 goals in their last 9 away games.
Head to Head
This the first meeting between the teams since the 1985/86 season.
On that occasion, Sporting overturned a first leg deficit with a 3-0 win in Lisbon.
Prediction
I am a little surprised that the layers have priced the Overs in this game at odds against, especially considering the attacking talent Athletic Bilbao have in their squad, and I think it is more down to the fact that Sporting Lisbon have been so tough at home.
However, as much as Bilbao need to be respected for their attacking talent, it must also be pointed out that they are a little suspect at the back and Sporting will surely want to take a lead to Spain next week so I will expect them to try and exploit those issues.
The other stat that seems to back goals is the fact that Sporting have scored at least 2 in 5 of their 7 Europa League games here this season, while Athletic Bilbao have conceded at least 2 in each of their last 4 in the competition.
Add to the mixture Bilbao's ability to score goals and I am a little surprised that the Overs is priced as tempting as it is.
The Pick :
Sporting Lisbon 2-2 Athletic Bilbao
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Over 2.75 Goals @ 2.30
