Europa League
2012-04-19 - Atletico Madrid vs Valencia
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Europa League Semi Final First Leg
Thursday 19 April 2012 - Kick Off 8:05pm
This game is live on TV
Atletico Madrid
As Real Madrid are playing in the Semi Finals of the Champions League, their City rivals are still in the Europa League and the potential for a European Super Cup between the old rivals is still possible. Atletico Madrid have made some changes to the forward line since they won this trophy in 2010, but they will feel they can go all the way again.
The team are in for a fight to get back into European competition next season as they are currently 8th in La Liga, but it says something about the nature of the table that they are only 6 points from 4th placed Malaga in the final Champions League place. Atletico have compiled an impressive 14-1-1 record in the Europa League all season, winning their 8 games at the Vicente Calderon.
Atletico returned to winning ways at the weekend at Rayo Vallecano having lost back to back League games at Levante and here against Real Madrid. Their home form had been good prior to the loss to Real as Atletico had won all 5 games in all competitions since a 1-2 loss to Barcelona. The team have won 9 straight games in the Europa League since a 2-0 loss in Udinese back in October.
Diego Godin is suspended for the home team, while Antonio Lopez and Silvio Pereira are doubtful as both missed the last training session.
Valencia
Valencia are the last remaining team that entered this competition having fallen in the Group Stage of the Champions League and they will be hoping their superior League position can make the difference in the tie. However, they are in for a fight to make the Champions League again next season and there is a fear that their eye may come off the ball despite this being a Semi Final.
The team are currently 3rd in La Liga, way behind Real Madrid and Barcelona, and they are only 1 point ahead of 4th placed Malaga, which would mean a Champions League qualifying game in August, and 4 points clear of Levante in the Europa League places. Valencia are 6-3-3 in European competition this season, going 1-2-3 away from home.
They had been unbeaten in 4 games in all competitions, including a 0-0 draw at Real Madrid, before being thumped 4-0 at Espanyol to put their Champions League participation for next season in a precarious position. Valencia have actually failed to win any of their last 4 games away from home in all competitions, losing 3 of those, since an impressive 0-3 win at Athletic Bilbao.
Antonio Barragan is suspended, but Victory Ruiz should be passed fit despite taking a knock against Espanyol. Hedwiges Maduro and Sergio Canales are both expected to miss out even though they have both returned to training.
Head to Head
Atletico Madrid will have good memories of facing Valencia in European competition having beaten them in the Europa League at the Quarter Final stage en route to winning the competition in 2010.
On that occasion, Atletico relied on a scoreless game here after securing a 2-2 draw at the Mestalla.
This will be the third time they are meeting this season with Valencia winning 1-0 at home and the teams drawing 0-0 here, both in La Liga.
Atletico Madrid have failed to beat Valencia the last three times they have hosted them in all competitions, but they had won four in a row before that.
Prediction
This is an interesting Semi Final between two teams that will know each other very well and I have a feeling it will be a low-scoring affair unless we see an early goal.
Valencia are likely to want to defend deep and make life tough for Atletico as they did when the teams met here in the League in February and as they did to their City rivals Real Madrid a couple of weeks ago, both of those games ending 0-0.
Atletico dominated the shot count in the draw with Valencia and I expect the game will have a similar pattern, even though the away team has an incentive to attack for an away goal. I expect Valencia will come here with the intention of grabbing an away goal, but would settle for another 0-0 ahead of the second leg next week.
However, I am going to back the home side to edge the contest at odds against as their home record has been pretty strong. They have won 6 of their last 8, the only exceptions being Barcelona and Real Madrid, and they have also won 8 in a row here in Europe so confidence must be high that they can finish with a lead to take to the Mestalla.
Valencia have also struggled away from home in recent weeks, so I will back Atletico to edge this first leg.
The Pick :
Atletico Madrid 1-0 Valencia
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Atletico Madrid @ 2.10
