Euro 2012
2012-06-13 - Denmark vs Portugal
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Euro 2012 : Group B
Wednesday 13th June - Kickoff 5:00pm
Denmark
At the time of this preview, the Danish win over Holland on Saturday is the biggest shock of the tournament. The 1-0 win has really opened up this group with the Danes a win a away from the last 8, yet a defeat to Portugal and it's anyone's in game week 3.
Krohn-Dehli's first half strike after a lovely dummy to "sell" 2/3 Dutch defenders before firing in between Stekelenburg's legs was the enoough to secure the Danes the 3 points. Still, they had to ride their luck for a long time and the Dutch missed several chances as well as hitting the woodwork on the day. The record books say Denmark won 1-0 but on another day it could have been a 3-1 loss.
Key creator Eriksen had a modest game against the Dutch and was eventually subbed late on. Denmark will want him on the ball against the Portuguese as he is the one that make things happen. The Danish are always good for a goal and like against the Dutch I expect them to score in this one it's just whether they can ride their luck at the other end again that worries me.
Good news for Denmark is they beat Portugal in qualifying to win the group but did suffer a big 3-1 defeat to them away from home. In a neutral venue I say these sides are very closely matched which makes the Denmark price of 4.00 somewhat large!
Portugal
Paulo Bento's Portugal suffered a close 1-0 defeat at the hands of Germany on Saturday and they join Holland at the bottom of group B. With the Dutch squaring off against the Germans later in the day, Portugal must win this game or else they could be out.
As mentioned above, Portugal beat Denmark at home and Denmark beat Portugal at home in qualifying and this looks a really close encounter. The Portuguese need to win this hence their evens quotes so I presume they will go all out. Against Germany, Portugal didn't have a go until they were a goal down and chasing the game. This time around they must attack and not let the game pass them by which will suite the likes of Ronaldo and Nani.
The two wide men had spells in the German game where they posed a threat but unfortunately their service were wasted by Postiga and then sub Varela who scored have equilised late in the game.
Ronaldo and Nasri will fancy running at the Danish back line having scored all 4 goals between them against them in qualifying. If Portugal get ahead I fancy them to hold on as the likes of Moutinho, Meireles and Veloso do an excellent job protected the back four. Plus apart from the Gomez goal I have to say I was impressed with Alves and Pepe at the back, not many will have success against these two.
Betting Verdict
I prefer Portugal of the two sides here to get the job done but I think the value lies in goals.
I see that unders and both not to score are odds on, I guess because both sides were involved in 1-0 games. Yet both their games in qualifying were overs and both scored. Also it's worth noting that the early group games are usually unders and as the requirements of sides become clearer, Portugal in in this case, teams will open up and I expect goals in this one.
Both to score is 2.1 whilst overs is 2.25, I'm sure that both score but will gamble that we see 3 possibly 4 goals in this one. Portugal don't have the same weapons as the Dutch do but I feel with Nani and Ronaldo they will create plenty. As for Denmark they can get at least one here with two a bonus. Most likely a Portugal win for me but again I see goals, especially late on as one side is chasing the game.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Denmark 1-3 Portugal
