Euro 2012
2012-06-13 - Holland vs Germany
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Euro 2012 : Group B
Wednesday 13th June - Kickoff 7:45pm
Holland
The Dutch's qualification hopes are hanging by a thin thread and that's just after one game. The 1-0 loss to the groups "weakest" side means realitically only two wins now against Germany and then Portugal will see them through and that seems a tall ask for me.
Van Marwijk's side created plenty of chances against Denmark as well as hitting the woodwork, but still they couldn't score. Robben, Van Persie, Sneijder and Afellay were all guilty of missing good chances or making wrong decisions when in good positions in the final third.
The Dutch defence worries me and whilst Denmark didn't create a host of chances the back four of Willems, Vlaar, Heitinga and Van Der Wiel didn't really impress me. This Wednesday they face a German side with tons of attacking talent and ultimately they will create more chances than the Danes.
Also I'm not the biggest fans of De Jong and Van Bommel as the defensive sheilds, both are too clumsy and too eager to jump in. Against Ozil and co I think they will get exposed and then that leaves the back four under real pressure.
Germany
Low's Germany are delighted with their 1-0 win over Portugal as it means realistically two draws will see them through or one win. With Holland on 0 points after they defeat to Denmark they will be going for the win too and this could be a great game to watch.
Germany had plenty of the ball and made a lot of the running against Portugal who were content with the score being 0-0. Mario Gomez eventually found the winner and the game opened up a little with Portugal looking to attack. I expect this one to have more goals and ultimately it's going to be an end to end game.
Many may argue that Germany will adopt a similar tactic that worked against Portugal where they didn't overly push forward, instead playing almost within themselves. I don't think this will work against Holland because they only play one way and if the Dutch do take an early chance chasing it against the likes of Robben and Sneijder on the break could be brutal.
Although head to head stats are misleading because they cover many years of games and different players etc but Germany has only won 6 of its last 23 against the Dutch. With Holland needing this win more than Germany I think we are in for a treat on Wednesday evening.
Betting Verdict
The bookies in all honesty have no great read on who wins this one. Holland are 3.40 (best price) and Germany 2.55 (best price), which obviously suggests the Germans are favoured but given the Dutch must win that 3.40 does look appealing.
I got burnt in the first game week in this Group expecting goals and I'm going to die by the sword here again. Interestingly both to score is odds on yet overs is odds against, so what this will end 1-1? With the Dutch defence plus their huge attacking threat 1-1 just doesn't look a runner for me.
Instead, like in the other group game I'm going for goals which in my eyes only fail if we go some 60 minutes without a goal. If Germany score, the Dutch must throw everything forward and with the counter attacking players on show this can only mean more excitement and more goals.
As for a winner, I actually think the Dutch price is the better of the two but how can you go against the Germans? If someone can pick the winner here good luck to them, goals seems the best bet for me.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Holland 2-3 Germany
