Euro 2012
2012-06-14 - Italy vs Croatia
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Euro 2012 : Group C
Thursday 14th June - Kickoff 5:00pm
Italy
The Italian's did themselves proud on Sunday as they held their own against the current European and World Champions Spain. Italy went in front through Di Natale only to concede 3 minutes later but held on to draw 1-1. Up next are group leaders Croatia who looked equally as impressive following their 3-1 win over the Republic of Ireland. With Italy on 1 point they really could do with a win here to give themselves the best chance of making the last 8.
The most impressive aspect of Italy's draw was that they adopted an untried 3-5-2 system to accommodate their current injury crisis. Numbers are so thin at the back that De Rossi played in the middle of a three man defence and was outstanding throughout. It was also brave to go with two up top but the strikers put in hard shifts off the ball to help out the midfield and this was very much a solid team effort.
A problem for Prandelli's side is how do they play against Croatia. The Spanish game was about avoiding defeat so they sat back deep and tried to play on the counter, which eventually worked but at the end of the game the midfield looked very leggy and virtually had nothing left. The same style of play should not be encouraged against Croatia, Italy needs to attack and control the game but this isn't their nature and it could affect them.
Another question mark is whether the 3-5-2 will be kept as it worked so well v Spain or will the coach go back to a 4-1-3-2 as used in recent friendlies. It's hard to tell at this early stage but already there are a few doubts in my mind as to how Italy approach this game and whether they can take the game to the Croats.
Croatia
In the game that both sides needed to win, it was Croatia who came out on top as they beat Ireland 3-1 on Sunday night. The win gives them a good chance of qualifying, as a win over Thursday's opponents Italy will secure them a spot in the last 8.
Bilic's side scored within the first 4 minutes in both halves and controlled the game throughout. The Irish had a few chances but all the clear cut chances and openings fell to the Croatians who thoroughly deserved their 3-1 margin of victory.
The side is clearly going to attack as it's defence isn't the best here this summer. With Modric and Srna pulling the strings, there was plenty of supply for Jelavic and Mandzukic who scored all 3 goals between them. Ireland under Trapattoni are usually sound defensively but Croatia opened them up several times. Whether this was because of the early goals therefore making the Irish come out more I'm not sure. But I do know that against Italy they will create chances which makes them a threat to go on and win the game whilst securing a place in the last 8.
Betting Verdict
This is a really tough game to call, Italy is expected to win and build from their solid point v Spain but often the Italians disappoint when favourites.
The 2.3 price may appeal to a few but my concern is the draw. It wouldn't surprise me if Prandelli took a point because it would mean the Italians entered the final group game on 2 points, with a win over Ireland (who could be out by then) more than likely to gain them qualification.
For the Croatian's they can't go into the last group game with Spain needing a win because realistically they won't get it. For Bilic's side it's win and your are through to the last 8. As a result I expect attacking play but the Italian's look solid at the back and goals may not be as easy to come by as they did v Ireland.
I don't like backing unders but I feel this is the best bet, I wanted to back both teams not to score but I prefer this bet in-case the game ends 1-1. With the line at 2, I will lower the payout a little and take the 2.25 line which will see some payout if 2 goals are scored.
There is a fear that Croatia score early again which will really open this game up but I will take a chance Italy keep this tight and look to win it in the second half.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Italy 1-0 Croatia
