Euro 2012
2012-06-17 - Portugal vs Holland
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Euro 2012 : Group B
Sunday 17th June - Kickoff 7:45pm
Portugal
With Denmark and Portugal on 3 points, the Portuguese must match Denmark's result to qualify unless they both lose and Holland win heavily causing both to be eliminated. The bookies are firmly behind this side to make it to the last 8 but to do that they must overcome a very talented but somewhat disorientated Dutch side.
Portugal I thought deserved a point v Germany. The Germans could not break down the Portuguese defence and never really opened them up either. Unfortunately a second half Gomez goal changed the game and Portugal were left with little time to respond.
Bento's side did create a few openings which unfortunately fell to Varela who missed one glorious chance to equalise. Despite creating some decent openings the side squandered a chance to take a point and were left in a hole before facing Denmark.
Aginst Denmark, Portugal raced into a 2 goal lead only to be miss numerous chances to kill the game. Ronaldo was the main culprit missing 2 one on ones with the goal at his mercy which was strange to see. As expected when you miss chances, you are quickly punished and that's what happened. Soon enough it was 2-2 and Portugal looked doomed only for Varela to net a winner and redeem himself for the first group game.
Portugal really need to win this to ensure they come second, a draw may be enough but with Holland need to win too I think this game will have a winner by the end of it.
Holland
Many peoples favourites to qualify with Germany have let punters and their fans down. The Dutch are winless and pointless from 2 games but still have an outside chance of making the last 8. Their price to do so is 6/1 but it seems much larger than that in implied odds to me.
Holland dominated Denmark but failed to score in a 1-0 defeat. Then against Germany they created 1 or 2 chances early on but then created nothing for large spells. Defensively they are very suspect especially down the left as Willems is the weak link.
Germany soon exploited this area and carved open the Dutch to score 2 wonderful goals and had it not been for an individual RVP effort this would have been another to nil loss.
With so much attacking talent, surely this side breaks out soon but with this being their potential last game it may be too late. I also worry that Robben isn't happy at all as he reacted badly to his substitution v Germany and Sneijder isn't having as good a tournament as he did at the World Cup. The pressure is really on this side but with them finally scoring will they break loose against the Portuguese and secure an unlikely qualification?
Betting Verdict
The bookies can't split these two and I can see why. Portugal look the better side at the moment but it's hard to see Holland being soo clueless for 3 straight games.
The draw could suit Portugal assuming Denmark are not performing miracles against Germany. However, with this Dutch side winless now may be the best time to play them. A win will ensure qualification and if Nani and Ronaldo are on song they have the tools to do so.
My bet for this game will be the same as that in the other group game. I expect goals and will take the 2.75 line. Holland defensively should cough up at least one, whilst going forward in a must win game at least one should be scored. Even against Germany, when looking awful they got one!
Similar to the other game, I don;t see a draw occurring. Holland will go all out whilst Portugal with Nani and Ronaldo will punish them on the counter. Could be a 3-2 or 2-1 either way here, so leave the tough fixed market and enjoy as the goals fly in!
Good Luck
The Pick :
Portugal 2-3 Holland
