Missouri Tigers at Florida Gators football Betting Pick

Gambling advice by FirstDown covering the NCAA Football match Missouri Tigers at Florida Gators.

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FirstDown's Recommended Bet :

I'll back the Florida Gators -17 Points @ 1.95

NCAA Football

2012-11-03 - Missouri Tigers at Florida Gators

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Missouri Tigers @ Florida Gators
United States: NCAA Football Week 10
Saturday 3 November 2012 - Kick Off 12pm
4pm (British Time)


Preview


The Florida Gators (7-1) looked to be in a perfect position to wrap up the SEC East last weekend, but they decided to play the sloppiest game of the season as they turned the ball over 6 times in an 8 point loss to the Georgia Bulldogs. That means the Gators need to win this game and hope the Bulldogs fail to win one of their remaining 2 SEC games if they are to play in the Championship Game.

An angry Florida team is not what the Missouri Tigers (4-4) would have wanted, especially as they have seen how tough the SEC is this season with a 1-4 record in the Conference. However, that sole victory did come last week, although that was against the weakest team in the SEC in the form of Kentucky.

Both teams will feel capable, but I think Florida are definitely the stronger of the two on both sides of the ball, while the Tigers have been exposed by other SEC teams this season despite earlier criticising teams in this Conference of playing 'old man ball'.

The Gators will hope to get their rushing game going again after struggling on the ground last week, but I expect more from Mike Gillislee and the Gators who have averaged 4.4 yards per carry so far this season. I expect Florida to wear down the Missouri Defense on the ground and then allow Jeff Driskel to make some plays with his arm.

Driskel really struggled last week, but he has been decent for most of the season and he had rarely made the mistakes that cost Florida the game last week. The Offensive Line can still pose problems in protection, but Missouri can be hurt through the air and I expect an established rushing game to open up the passing lanes.

But it is on the other side of the ball that the Gators have really excelled with the Defense allowing just 12 points per game and holding a powerful Georgia Offense to just 17 points last week. They generate a decent pass rush, but it is turnovers where they really thrive and that has been a problem for Missouri this season.

It won't be easy to fool the Florida Defense that is allowing just 3.1 yards per carry on the ground and that means it will be tough for the Quarter Back, whether that is James Franklin or Corbin Berkenstresser with the keys to the Offense.


Head to Head


This will be the second time these schools have ever met with the first time coming in the 1965 Sugar Bowl, a game Missouri won by 2 points.


Prediction


Florida have to be extremely upset with the way they shot themselves in the foot last week against Georgia not once, but on six occasions and that has left them in a vulnerable position in the SEC East.

However, the Gators know a win will ensure they finish with a 7-1 Conference record and that could be enough to win the Division if Georgia fail to win either of their last 2 Conference games.

That should focus the Gators who are the better team on both sides of the ball in this contest and I expect they are going to wear down Missouri before pulling away in a similar manner as Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina have when faced with the Tigers this season.

The spread is on the high side, but I believed Florida were going to win this by 20 + points before the line was released so they look worth backing here.

The Pick :

Florida Gators 31-10 Missouri Tigers

FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :

I'll back the Florida Gators -17 Points @ 1.95


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