NCAA Football
2012-11-03 - Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 10
Saturday 3 November 2012 - Kick Off 12pm
4pm (British Time)
Preview
This is a big game between two SEC West rivals that were always going to be behind the Alabama Crimson Tide and the LSU Tigers within the Division, but who have both achieved a lot of growth in the season with a Bowl game potentially up for grabs.
The Texas A&M Aggies (6-2) were not expected to have a big season as they lost Head Coach Mike Sherman and Quarter Back Ryan Tennehill to the NFL last season and this was their first season in the Conference. However, they have surprised many with their record that reads 3-2 in the Conference with only defeats to top schools LSU and Florida so far.
Mississippi State (7-1) are less of a surprise, although they lost their first game of the season at Alabama last weekend and were dropped to 3-1 in the SEC. Both schools also have big games on the schedule with the Bulldogs travelling to LSU next weekend and the Aggies travelling to Alabama.
The real key for the Aggies success this season has been the play of Freshman Johnny Manziel, a Quarter Back that can both pass the ball and run the ball with equal authority. Manziel has had success against LSU and Florida in previous games this season so should be able to get things going against the Bulldogs Defense as long as he can limit his mistakes against this Secondary.
Thanks to his ability on the ground, the Aggies have also moved at 5.8 yards per carry and they should be able to find a bit of room against Mississippi State who have allowed almost 150 yards per game on the ground. If the Aggies can do that, they will be able to keep Manziel in manageable situations where he won't be forced into obvious passing situations.
The entire key to this game could be whether LaDarius Perkins can continue generating rushing yards on the ground. Perkins was shut down by the Crimson Tide last week, but will need to be established for the Bulldogs if they are to win the game. Texas A&M have one of the better rush Defenses as they allow just 3.6 yards per carry and Perkins will need to make sure the Offense is not left in third and long situations.
Mississippi State can throw the ball and that is a weakness for this Aggies Defense, but the Bulldogs haven't been that efficient and I think they will want to avoid third down situations against a Defense that has really strengthened in those situations.
The Offensive Line will face some pressure from an Aggies pass rushm especially in third and long situations, but generally the Mississippi State Bulldogs should be able to get the chains moving with some consistency in this one as long as they don't make any silly mistakes that they have avoided for most of the season.
Head to Head
Mississippi State lead the all-time series against Texas A&M 3-2, but the most recent of those games came in 2000 when they won by just 2 points in a humdinger.
Prediction
These two teams both look very evenly matched to me and I can see the game being settled by a field goal either way.
That makes the 7 point headstart being offered on Mississippi State look large enough to take, especially as they have been solid enough in SEC play outside of that loss to Alabama.
It just looks a lot of points for the home side in this one and I can see them perhaps sneaking a win outright.
The Pick :
Mississippi State 24-23 Texas A&M Aggies