Tennis
2025-09-01 - Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Andrey Rublev
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: US Open Fourth Round
Monday 1st September 2025 - Scheduled 11:30am
4:30pm (British Time)
Preview
The upset of Alexander Zverev has just opened up a pathway to the US Open Semi Final and Felix Auger-Aliassime will be under the pressure of backing up that victory over the World Number 3.
There were signs of the confidence that Felix Auger-Aliassime is playing with in his run at Cincinnati, but even then, the manner of his loss to Jannik Sinner would have meant few people backing the Canadian to have a big impact in New York City.
He has dropped down the World Rankings, which means there are increased chances of having to face some of the top names earlier in the Grand Slam draw than would have been hoped. Credit has to be given to Felix Auger-Aliassime for playing with the intensity he did against Alexander Zverev with the match turning in the second set tie-breaker which was only just won by Auger-Aliassime.
The Fourth Round match is against an opponent who made hard work of his Third Round win, although Andrey Rublev did win.
In recent months the World Number 15 may not have had the mentality to battle through a match where things had not gone his way and so Andrey Rublev has to be ready to reach the Quarter Final at the US Open again.
Both players have very similar numbers on the hard courts, although the mental edge is clearly with Andrey Rublev who has won seven of the previous eight matches between the players. That includes two wins in 2025, one of those being on the hard courts, and so you can understand why the layers have made the Russian a slight favourite, despite similar levels of performance on the surface.
Felix Auger-Aliassime's sole win over Andrey Rublev has been on a hard court, while he will point out how competitive all of those matches have been.
Only one of the five hard courts matches between these two players has been won in straight sets and this has all of the makings of going at least four and potentially five.
Both are capable of rolling through the service games on the hard courts against the opponent they are facing and backing this Fourth Round match to surpass the total line looks the right approach.
Tie-breakers cannot be ruled out during this contest and just one of those would put the match on the way to a cover as long as each player takes a set, which looks pretty likely on current form.
Prediction
This Fourth Round match should go at least four sets and the serving powers of the two players can help push this game over the total line set.
The Pick :
Felix Auger-Aliassime 1-3 Andrey Rublev
