CSKA Moscow - Sevilla
Football: Champions League. 1/8 finals, 1st leg.
Wednesday, 24th February 2010. Kickoff 18:30

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CSKA Moscow

CSKA Moscow is writing a new chapter in club’s history as they begin their UCL play-off campaign in snowy Russian capital. “Army men” became joint winners of Copa del Sol in La Manga together with Shakhtar Donetsk. Their final was cancelled due to pouring rain. Key creative unit – Alan Dzagoev – has missed all three training camps due to ongoing groin discomfort. He remains a major doubt for the clash vs. Sevilla. CSKA has not managed to keep a single clean sheet during pre-season friendlies, conceding from whoever they were up against. This is, in my opinion, the biggest concern for Leonid Slutsky ahead of Wednesday’s match up.

Through out the preparation period Leonid Slutsky kept the starting line-up relatively identical in every friendly. Rotation applied only to the right back position, where Nababkin and A.Berezutsky consequently changed each other; and center forward – Guilherme and Necid had been leap frogging each other. In the end it looks like A. Berezutsky and Necid have guaranteed themselves a place in the starting 11. Alan Dzagoev will be replaced by Keisuke Honda. Japanese newcomer started brightly, but in recent friendlies looked less productive.

Leonid Slutsky strongly believes Sevilla will come to Moscow to defend in numbers. This said CSKA should prepare for high percentage of ball possession and the search for free space in front of Palop’s goal. Naturally majority of attacking moves will come from the right flank, where Milos Krasic has been enjoying the form of his life.

Expected formation and line up :
CSKA Moscow (4-2-3-1)
Akinfeev
Nababkin or A.Berezutsky, Ignashevich,V. Berezutsky, Schennikov
Semberas,Aldonin
Krasic,Honda,Gonzalez
Necid

Sevilla

Once again Sevilla’s season is built around Champions’ League. Southern club is out of contention for the title in La Liga, but looks good to earn a ticket to the prestigious tournament yet again. Absence of pressure in the domestic championship allows Manolo Jimenez to fully concentrate on the encounter against CSKA.

Sevilla is traveling to Russia in good mood following a 1-3 away victory against Mallorca. Andalucian club became the first team to take points away from the Balearic island. Jesus Navas scored one and created another for Perrotti. Serbian defender Drago took a brilliant free-kick in between.

Spaniards are familiar with cold Russian winter as they had faced Lokomotiv Moscow in UEFA Cup play-offs two years ago. Their trip was successful back then and finished in a 0-1 victory. Manolo Jimenez’ experience in Champions’ League is limited by last year’s exit at the same stage as Sevilla lost to Fenerbahce.

Diego Capel and Luis Fabiano have not traveled to Moscow due to respective injuries. Absence of Brazilian striker is, of course, more significant than of his Spanish team-mate. Frederick Kanoute is available again after he missed the week-end fixture vs. Mallorca.

Expected formation and line up :
Sevilla (4-2-3-1)
Palop
Stankevicius,Escude,Drago,F.Navarro
Duscher or Romaric,Zokora
Jesus Navas,Renato,Perrotti
Negredo

Betting advice

First, I'd like express my personal opinion about Sevilla under Manolo Jimenez. For the second season in a row I cannot find the reasons why he is kept by Del Nido in charge of Andalucian outfit. Being one of the most economically well managed clubs in Europe, perhaps, the secret lies in Jimenez' reasonably low salary.

Anyway, returning to today's game.I rate Slutsky as a more skilled manager than his Spanish colleague. Sevilla's gameplay has always been straight forward, in my opinion. They don't have a truly creative attacking central midfielder, so the accents are still set on the wings, where, no one can argue, Sevilla is really strong. Neutralizing the Spanish side is an achievable task for Slutsky and his team.

Home support, artificial pitch and weather conditions traditionally represent an advantage to CSKA.

Asian market has set Sevilla as favorites here, but I hardly see reasons for that. The old myth about Russian sides not being ready to participate in Europe in February has been more than once proved wrong- first by CSKA and then by Zenit.

The Statistics :

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

CSKA 38% - Draw 35% - Sevilla 27%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Over 2 goals @ 1.67 with Bet365

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take CSKA (+0.25) @ 1.75 with Bet365 (main bet);