Match Overview :
Record breaking manager Jose Mourinho is enjoying a flying start to his career with Real Madrid and now what stands between him and more success is Barcelona. Mourinho is no stranger to El-Clasico as he was previously the assistant of Bobby Robson and Van Gaal.
Real Madrid should welcome back Higuain and Khedira to the starting line up as both of them did not feature in midweek. However Mourinho will still be without Kaka and Gago who are still out injured. As for Guardiola, he has a full squad to select from apart from Milito.
As for Barcelona Guardiola, he has enjoyed so much success in the El-Clasico in his first two years in-charge. He has won all four meetings against Real Madrid since taking over as manager of Barca.
With Barcelona likely to play their 4-3-3 formation and Real Madrid playing the 4-2-3-1 formation, it seems to me that Real Madrid to hold a slight advantage. Busquet or Mascherano alone in my opinion is not good enough to protect the back four for Barcelona. Xavi and Iniesta is not known for their defending skills and this would give perfect opportunity for the likes of Ozil, Ronaldo and Di Maria.
In addition, Sami Khedira has already got the better of Messi once this year in the World Cup. Should Mourinho once again do a man marking on Messi, I expect the Argentine to be largely in-effective.
Head to Head :
Barcelona have been Real Madrid's nightmare for the past two seasons. Barcelona have defeated Real Madrid in the League in their last four meetings. However in their last ten league meetings between both side, Barcelona have won five while Real Madrid have won three, and both sides have drawn on the remaining two occasion.
Based on this fact, it is obvious why the bookmakers are giving Madrid a slight head start. However if you go in depth a little, Real Madrid was never under a manager who was a master of tactician in the past two years.
The Betting Verdict :
This has to be a close encounter and the handicap the bookmaker is giving definitely a "false" one for people to assume that Barcelona are favourites. Yes, Barcelona do hold home advantage BUT if you look at current form, Real Madrid is definitely the better side.
Guardiola and Barcelona have basically single handily relied on Messi. Previously he was the architect and now Messi is not only the architect but also the finisher. Should Jose Mourinho be able to contain him, I find it hard to believe how Barcelona will get all three points.
On the other hand, many argue that Real Madrid have also relied heavily on Ronaldo. However, if you take an in-depth look, you'll notice that YES Ronaldo has been heavily involved in scoring and creating but Madrid have not only relied on him.
Last season, Higuain was getting his share of goals while this season under Jose Mourinho, Real's defense have improve tremendously.
With the handicap at +0.25 or +0.5 for Real Madrid, there is no way for me not to back the away side. The best possible outcome for the home side would be a draw but based on my understanding of Jose Mourinho, I believe the Portuguese manager has what it takes to counter Barcelona's weakness.
The Statistics :
BARCELONA LAST SIX HOME FORM
DATE
RESULT
OPPOSITION
2010-11-13
W
3-1
H v Villarreal
2010-10-30
W
5-0
H v Sevilla
2010-10-16
W
2-1
H v Valencia
2010-10-03
D
1-1
H v Mallorca
2010-09-22
W
1-0
H v Gijon
2010-09-11
L
0-2
H v Hercules
REAL_MADRID LAST SIX AWAY FORM
DATE
RESULT
OPPOSITION
2010-11-14
W
0-1
A v Gijon
2010-10-30
W
1-3
A v Hercules
2010-10-16
W
1-4
A v Malaga
2010-09-25
D
0-0
A v Levante
2010-09-18
W
1-2
A v Real_Sociedad
2010-08-29
D
0-0
A v Mallorca
HEAD TO HEAD BARCELONA v REAL_MADRID
DATE
HOME
SCORE
AWAY
2009-11-29
Barcelona
1-0
Real_Madrid
2008-12-13
Barcelona
2-0
Real_Madrid
2007-12-23
Barcelona
0-1
Real_Madrid
2007-03-10
Barcelona
3-3
Real_Madrid
2006-04-01
Barcelona
1-1
Real_Madrid
2004-11-20
Barcelona
3-0
Real_Madrid
BEST BETTING TIP :
Consider trying Real Madrid to win the game
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Real Madrid and accept the +0.25 or +0.5 head start. (Main Bet)
