NCAA Football
2011-12-01 - West Virginia at South Florida
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Thursday, December 1st, 2011, 8:00PM US
(1:00AM GMT)
PREVIEW
I went against South Florida last week when they played Louisville and a lot of the arguments hold true here again against a West Virginia side that comes here needing a win in a big way. West Virginia have lost 3 games this season, and their 8-3 mark, and 4-2 Big East record mean they have to win here and then pray Cincinnati beats Connecticut in order for them to get a BCS bowl game.
With QB BJ Daniels, who gets the team about 300 yards of total offence per game, this South Florida team are struggling. So far, South Florida have lost their last 5 games by an average of 5 points. The Bulls are on a 1-6 skid at the moment, with the only win coming against Syracuse, and have lost 2 straight, including that 10 point loss to Louisville last week.
The word is Daniels is still not a go, meaning Bobby Eveld will have to continue throwing for South Florida. Last week, he managed just 1 TD against Louisville and was intercepted, going 20 for 35 with 210 yards. The ground game barely helped out with just 64 yards.
WVU made up for previous mistakes by showing they can play under pressure, coming back from 0-14 down to end the game against Pittsburgh with a win. QB Geno Smith, arguably the best player in the Big East, was awesome as usual and even more so because the ground game was stifled by Pittsburgh. So far this season, Smith has thrown for 3,741 yards at a 65% completion rate, hitting 25 TDs with just 5 interceptions. Stedman Bailey caught a 63 yard pass for a score last week, and along with Tavon Austin they have in excess of 2,000 yards between them!
WVU are allowing opponents to rush for just 37 yards per carry and just about 10 yards per pass. That shows this team is good enough to defend both through the air and on the gound, and with South Floridas ground game looking anaemic it will be up to Eveld to do something special. I don't think he can. I've been looking around for news on Daniels and some sites suggest he might just come out and play no matter what, since this is the final regular season game and at 5-6 South Florida need a win here in order to go bowling. They might be desperate, but that doesn't mean they get what they want.
WVU, led by Smith, have the more potent offence, and with Daniels still not 100%, there is no way I can suggest a bet on them.
BETTING VERDICT
The spread is quite small and as I see WVU winning I am going to go with the Mountaineers to cover.
The Pick :
West Virginia -1.5
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take West Virginia -1.5 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
