Euro 2012
2012-06-28 - Germany vs Italy
A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt
Football : Euro 2012 SF
Venue: National Stadium Warsaw, Warsaw
Thursday 28th June – Kickoff time: 20:45 GMT+1
Germany
Germany are on a world record 15 match winning streak in competitive fixtures (including qualifiers), breaking the 14 match international record previously held by Spain, France and the Netherlands.
However, in order to continue this streak they’ll have to beat Italy for the first time in a competitive fixture. Their record in seven games in major tournaments is D4, L3, losing twice in semi finals before, both at the World Cup.
Joachim Low’s side’s form is impressive, they have scored at least once in each of their last 20 games, netting four goals in the previous round against the defensive minded Greece.
There are a lot of question marks regarding Germany’s starting line-up for this match, Reus and Klose have both scored against Greece and may have played themselves into contention, while Boateng might have lost his place to Bender after his disappointing performance in the quarter finals.
There are also some injury concerns regarding Bastian Schweinsteiger, his ankle has not fully recovered from an earlier injury.
Probable Germany line-up :
Neuer
Bender, Hummels, Badstuber, Lahm
Khedira, Schweinsteiger
Reus, Ozil, Podolski
Gomez
Italy
Italy needed penalties to eliminate England in the quarter finals after wasting a lot of chances in normal time. The extra 30 minutes might cost them before a demanding semi-final against such a well-built side like Germany.
Despite everyone being skeptic before the tournament about their chances to make an impact at Euro 2012, Italy slowly moved through the gears and are now eying the final. We’ve seen a resolute defensive performance against a dominant Spanish side in the opening game from Prandelli’s squad and we also seen a different side of them against England, being the ones controlling the game and creating numerous chances.
Even though they have only scored 4 goals and the general opinion about them is that they are a rather defensive side, Italy has had 87 total goal attempts, 50 of those on target, more than any other team left in the tournament.
Defender Giorgio Chiellini limped off with a hamstring injury against Croatia and missed the quarter-final against England, but he might be recovered in time for this match.
Cesare Prandelli is also sweating for the fitness of Daniele De Rossi and Ignazio Abate after the duo picked up muscle injuries in the penalty shoot-out victory over England, while Christian Maggio is suspended.
Probable Italy line-up :
Buffon
Abate, Barzagli, Bonucci, Balzaretti
Marchisio, Pirlo, Nocerino
Motta
Balotelli, Cassano
The Betting Verdict
Cesare Prandelli’s men have had two days less rest than the Germans, and after 120 minutes of action in their last game I don’t think that another match going into extra time would be in their advantage.
However, they might not even have the chance to get there if Germany confirms their favorite status and get the job done in 90 minutes. Joachim Low’s side is obviously in pole position to reach the final, they are the only team that has won all their games so far, scoring 8 goals in the process.
Italy will have to be more efficient in front if they want to stand a chance here, Balotelli and company have been too wasteful against England. What concerns me more is that they were vulnerable in the defense without Chiellini there. England caused panic every time they carried out an attack, luckily for the Italians those moments were rare.
I’ve backed Italy against Spain (not to lose), Republic of Ireland and England, but I think this will be the end of the road for them. I can’t say that Germany will dominate the match, both teams have a solid midfield, but the Germans always seem to know how to handle the important moments during a game and with so many quality players in front they should be able to outscore the Italians.
The Pick :
Germany 2-1 Italy
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Germany to win at 1.95 at PinnacleConfidence: 7/10
Try Germany to win and at least 3 goals to be scored at 3.75 at Ladbrokes
Confidence: 5/10 (Main Bet)
