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World Cup News :: Group G Preview : Belgium, England, Tunisia, Panama

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Posted on 2018-06-11 by Gooner

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World Cup 2018 : Group G Preview

One of the more straight forward looking Groups at the World Cup Finals looks to be Group G where two big European nations have been placed alongside one of the weakest teams in the whole competition and another who have been struggling with injury to key players ahead of the tournament.

The Favourites - Belgium and England

In all honesty the biggest question about this Group is whether Belgium will finish first or if England can upset the top Seed and earn what is potentially a 'weaker' Second Round match.

That fixture is the last one on the slate for this Group and I would be surprised if either Belgium or England need a result in that one to progress with the full expectation they will both be on six points at that time.

There is always room for an upset or two at the World Cup, even in the Group Stage, but I am struggling to see any problems for these two nations.

Roberto Martinez may not be my cup of tea when it comes to a top manager and he certainly was not an eye-catching choice as manager for Belgium after the surprising Euro 2016 exit in the Quarter Finals to Wales.

He has been tasked with helping this 'golden generation' of players surpass the last two tournaments where Belgium have been beaten in the Quarter Final both times but there are questions about Martinez from a tactical point of view which may arise later in this tournament once the matches become much, much more difficult.

Unlike the last couple of tournaments, I think Martinez is going to get some good momentum behind Belgium this time around with a couple of strong wins to open things up. Belgium needed to come from behind to win their opening World Cup game in 2014 and won all three Group games by narrow margins, while they were beaten by Italy in the opening Euro 2016 fixture too.

A team with a reputation of being a flat track bully doesn't have the same kind of opponent in this Group as they have faced in the last couple of major tournament Finals and Martinez is someone who will set his team up to be very attacking. That could see Belgium win their opening couple of games by a couple of big margins and I do think that will give them the edge over England when it comes to topping the Group.

Belgium banged home 43 goals in 10 Qualifiers on their way to Russia and I think they can make pretty light work of the first two games to comfortably progress.

England are not likely to perform as freely as Belgium when it comes to their attacking play, but there have been some improvements under Gareth Southgate which will give the players belief even if the fans remain unconvinced.

Friendly results are not a great indicator of future successes, but England still have to be respected for the performances in games against Spain, Italy, Brazil and Germany which suggests they could be a tougher out than the team who exited Euro 2016 with a whimper to the might of Iceland.

Unlike Belgium, England will look to be assured defensively and try and spring on teams on the counter attack, but that may mean they are making harder work of the two minnows in this section. If it comes down to goal difference you would imagine Belgium have a big edge over England, but this is not going to be of great concern to Southgate as he looks to see an improvement from his team.

Coming out of arguably the weakest of the World Cup Qualifying Groups means you have to temper some enthusiasm for England going unbeaten, while recent years have seen them make light work of Qualifiers only to fall flat on their faces when it comes to the Finals of tournaments.

It would perhaps be the greatest of England's recent underachievements if they are unable to come out of this section and at least make the Second Round.

The Underdogs - Tunsia and Panama

The other two teams in the Group are more of an afterthought and I think this is one Group where it makes sense for that to be the case.

Tunisia are back in the World Cup for the first time in twelve years having been fortunate with the draw for the final World Cup Qualifying Group. They have failed to win a single game in the Groups since their first appearance in 1978 which means suffering a Group Stage exit in 1998, 2002 and 2006.

Injuries to a couple of their leading lights has really dimmed the flame of enthusiasm the fans would have had for their chances of upsetting one of the big name European nations in the Group, while off field issues have perhaps splintered the squad.

The manager Nabil Maaloul has been criticised for trying to bring in second generation Tunisians who have been born outside of the nation and there are still concerns that Tunisia are defensively sound but lacking a real goal threat.

It makes it very hard to see them coming out of the Group, but Tunisia have shown in recent friendly games that they won't be a walkover and England should certainly be aware of what they are facing in the opening World Cup game of the tournament.

At least Tunisia will feel they have a chance of winning their first World Cup game since 1978 when they face Panama last in the Group. Merely being at the World Cup is a joyous situation for Panama where football is some way behind baseball as the number one sport in the country and it would take a shock of seismic proportions for their journey in Russia to go beyond the three games scheduled.

The feeling for Panama fans is their squad had a much better chance of having an impact in the Finals four years ago when they barely missed out on making it to Brazil. Now those same players are four years older and there has not been the transition in the squad that you would have expected with younger talent not ready to break through for them.

It all adds up to a nation who are going to enjoy every moment of the World Cup, regardless of the results, but one who will come up short throughout the tournament.

A lack of goals is a real concern for Panama and the 6-0 loss to Switzerland in a recent friendly might just have a few fans fearing the opener against a very attack minded Belgium. The limits to the Panama aims look to be trying to secure a point and score a goal in Russia, but even those may be asking a little too much of this squad.

The Path Through the Knockout Stages

Let's face facts- England and Belgium should cruise through to the Second Round and the real question is which of these teams will top the Group.

Belgium have the edge for me because I think they can outscore England which means a draw will be good enough when they face one another at the end of June to top the section. I may think about it a lot more if there was a 'clearer' path through the draw that would make finishing first and second a big difference, but I don't think that is the case and both Roberto Martinez and Gareth Southgate would likely accept a draw and make sure players are ready to compete in the Last 16 and going forward.

Facing Colombia, Poland or Senegal in the Second Round is neither here nor there and I can only see England or Belgium pushing for a result in the final Group game if it means facing Japan in the Last 16.

If the draw goes as expected the team finishing first will be Seeded to face Brazil in the Quarter Final and the team finishing second will face Germany so again I think the managers won't be asking their players to tire themselves out searching for a result.

As much as I like the squad Belgium have I don't think Roberto Martinez will be able to get it tactically right when it matters in this tournament and it feels like a third Quarter Final loss in a row is on the cards for this team.

I very much would expect Belgium to beat either Poland or Senegal in a Second Round match and backing them at 3-1 to exit in the Quarter Final looks a huge price regardless of whether they finish first or second.

England's prospects are much more difficult to read and it is hard to ignore the fact they have won just 1 of their last 8 tournament matches going back to Euro 2012. Four years ago they didn't win a game in the Group Stage containing Italy, Uruguay and Costa Rica while England won 1 of 4 games at Euro 2016 with an injury time winner against Wales in the Group.

I expect them to get out of this Group and I don't think they would have it easy against any of the nations they would potentially face in the Second Round. The poor tournament record would have concerned me more if there hadn't been the turnover that has occurred in the last four years and I think this England team could surprise by winning a first Knock Out tie in any tournament since 2006.

THe Betting Options

That was the last time England reached the Quarter Final of the World Cup Finals and I think having an interest on England also being eliminated at that stage looks to be worth backing.

You can also find a price of odds against on Tunisia finishing third in this Group which looks an outstanding price- they are less likely to ship a lot of goals than Panama are which means a draw in the final Group game would be enough for them to finish above the Central American nation.

This Group also provides me an interest in one of the top goalscorer markets and I promise I am not just saying this as a Manchester United fan. Romelu Lukaku is 18-1 to top score at the World Cup and I absolutely can see him make hay in the Group Stage which could give him a great chance of doing that. It takes around 5/6 goals to get into consideration for top scorer and Lukaku is more than capable of getting a number of those goals in the World Cup Group Stage with a reputation of a 'flat track bully' perhaps coming to the fore here.

He scored 11 times in 8 Qualifiers and even the potential Quarter Final exit doesn't put me off too much knowing James Rodriguez top scored with Colombia four years ago and also went out in the Quarter Final. Lukaku doesn't take the penalties which is a blow, but I can easily see him coming out of the Group Stage with four goals and then it is a case of a bit of luck helping him along the way.

An each-way interest on Lukaku has to be taken at the prices and I will look for Belgium to help him get on his way with a couple of big wins to open the Group.

The Betting Verdict

I consider these bets as good value :
• Belgium Stage of Elimination- Quarter Final @ 4.00 with Bet Victor (2 Units)
• England Stage of Elimination Quarter Final @ 3.20 with Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
• Tunisia to Finish Third Group G @ 1.91 with Ladbrokes (2 Units)
• Romelu Lukaku Top Goalscorer @ 19.00 with Ladbrokes (0.5 Units E/W)

 

Sourced From : GoonersGuide to World Cup Betting

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