EURO 2024 BETTING PREVIEW - WALES VS POLAND

Euro 2024

2024-03-26 - Wales vs Poland

A Sports Betting Preview by Auls

Wales v Poland
Football: UEFA Euro 2024 Play Off Qualifier
Tuesday 26th March 2024 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV

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Wales

The best way to show that the national team has moved on from a golden generation of players that brought unprecedented success would be by Qualifying for the next major tournament without them. Seeing Gareth Bale retire was expected to set Wales back, but Robert Page deserves a lot of credit for the way his team have battled after the Group exit in Qatar 2022.

Some will feel Wales should have found a way to claw themselves into the top two of their Qualifying Group having finished behind Croatia and Turkey, but the Play Offs always offered a second route into Euro 2024. The Play Offs were key in helping Wales end a long, long wait to play in the World Cup Finals and the team comfortably dismissed the challenge of Finland in the Semi Final on Thursday.

Wales are unbeaten in 7 in all competitions since a very disappointing June 2023 when losing to both Armenia and Turkey, results that effectively proved pivotal in finishing 3rd in their Qualifying Group. The home loss to Armenia was particularly worrying, but Wales are unbeaten in 5 in front of their fans since then and they have won 3 of those matches, including beating Croatia.

Poland

A late lapse in concentration hurt the Play Off Pick on Thursday when Poland conceded against Estonia, but the players and staff won't be too concerned about that. Instead the focus is on joining Netherlands, France and Austria in a 'Group of Death' at Euro 2024 and Poland are one more win away from being able to book flights and hotels.

Out of the majority of the top nations in European Football, Poland were perhaps the most disappointing in the Qualifying Group and finishing behind Czechia and Albania would have stung. They would have always known that this Play Off path would be available as a back up, but Poland are going to be under some pressure to find a big result with the draw meaning they have to play this Qualifier in Cardiff.

Poland have bounced back from the very poor 2-0 defeat in Albania to produce a run of 5 games unbeaten and they have won 3 of those matches. Back to back wins will have given them belief, even if those have been against lowly Latvia and Estonia. Poland beat Faroe Islands in their last away fixture, but had lost all 3 other away games played in their Qualifying Group.

Head to Head

Poland and Wales were in the same Nations League Group in 2022 and it was the former who won both fixtures played.

Wales have lost their last 4 home games against Poland.

Prediction

There are some big Euro 2024 fixtures to come for the winner of this Play Off Final, but Wales and Poland will only be focusing on Tuesday and not thinking ahead to Germany in the summer.

Both will be disappointed that they have to work their way through the Play Offs rather than having already secured a spot in the next major international tournament.

Big wins on Thursday should mean the players are confident and ready to perform, although Poland may have a slight mental advantage having beaten Wales twice in the last running of the Nations League.

Those matches were before the last World Cup and a lot has changed for both since then- the Welsh talisman has retired, while the Polish one certainly looks to be a declining force.

Wales have home advantage and that feels important- they did beat Croatia here a few months ago, while Poland lost in Moldova, Czechia and Albania in their Euro 2024 Qualifying Group. Yes, they won here in the Nations League, but the Welsh squad looks to be a little more experienced now and the table can be turned.

Over the last several hours, the money seems to be coming in on Wales, although this is likely to be a tense, competitive fixture all the way through. Beating Estonia and Finland in Play Off Semi Finals will have Poland and Wales feeling good, but both Nations League games between these two were very competitive and the latter may just feel a little hard done by that they lost both times.

You can't dismiss the experience of Poland, but Wales might just have enough to nick this one and can be backed on the Asian Handicap or Draw No Bet markets.

The Pick :

Wales 2-1 Poland

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Wales 0 Asian Handicap at 1.75 with Bet365