RUGBY LEAGUE BETTING PREVIEW - MELBOURNE STORM VS CRONULLA SHARKS

Rugby League

2024-05-11 - Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks

A Sports Betting Preview by Stu

v Cronulla Sharks
Rugby League : Australia : NRL
Saturday 11th May 2024 - KO 1935 AEST

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Melbourne Storm

Melbourne have surprised many by maintaining their very high level of play despite team changes and injuries to key personnel to start the season.

The Storm have played 8 matches to date and hold a superb record of 7-1 to be on equal points with the Sharks on 16. The return of Cam Munster has released some pressure on Hughes in the halves to allow for a more balanced attack and this is showing in their recent performances winning their past 5 straight.

Melbourne's last outing was certainly not one of their best, but they did enough to get the victory against the Titans on the Gold Coast who are improving week by week after a horror start to the season.

Melbourne scored 4 tries in 13 minutes in the first half to score all but 2 of their points but did miss 3 of the conversions to release some of the scoreboard pressure on the Titans. The Gold coast tried very hard in the second half and were probably the better team in the last 40, Melbourne holding on to win 20-22.

Melbourne Storm Team News -Jahrome Hughes is out for this week and is replaced by Tyran Wishart. Sualauvi Fa’alogo replaces Ryan Papenhuyzen who looks set for another stint on the sidelines, Grant Anderson comes in on the wing.

Cronulla Sharks

Cronulla hold the same record as Melbourne on 7-1 with points differential allowing the Sharks to hold the number one ranking in the NRL.

Cronulla have also had their bye 5 weeks ago and remain undefeated since that point going 4-0, Nicho Hynes being the architect of many of their tries and general kicking. The other major advantage the sharks have is their lack of injuries, essentially the squad is injury free and will be in this match to the final whistle.

Cronulla last played St George at home and trailed 6-10 at HT, the Dragons outscoring the Sharks 1 try to 2. Cronulla’s defence stepped up big time in the second half keeping the Dragons scoreless for the remaining 40 minutes, while scoring two tries of their own to win by 10, 20-10 final score.

Cronulla Sharks Team News – only one change, Royce Hunt replaces Toby Rudolf in the forwards.

Odds

Typically when you have first v second battle, the odds are usually very close and this match is no exception, $1.91 to $1.91, the line 1.5 points in favour of the Sharks and total points is 41.5

The Betting Verdict

Melbourne’s form at home is formidable this season at 5-0, while the Sharks also perfect at home 4-0 and importantly 3-1 away from home. Melbourne hold a excellent record over the Sharks, leading the H2H 29-16 from the 45 meetings.

The home ground statistics also shows Melbourne's dominance, the Storm winning 71% at home whereas the Sharks are a dismal 2-12 from at AAMI park.

Defence for both teams is a high priority. Cronulla lead the defensive ratings allowing just 13.75 ppg through the opening 8 matches while Melbourne are 3rd in defence, averaging 17.25 ppg.

Cronulla do not enjoy playing the Storm and as you can see by the Stats at this venue, Melbourne should be strong favourites at home even though the odds do not suggest that.

The reason that the odds are so even is the Sharks are injury free vs the Storm who have Papenhuyzen out and others so this match should be a tight defensive orientated affair. As for the winner, Cronulla being injury free certainly evens the odds here but their away form at AAMI park is telling, Melbourne by 4 in a close one.

Suggested option here is to look for a low scoring match, probably under 20 points each or under the total of 41.5 points and a close victory for either team bringing the Tribet options into play.

The Pick :

Melbourne Storm 20-16 Cronulla Sharks

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take a total combined points under 41.5 points bet at odds of $1.91 with Bet365