RUGBY LEAGUE BETTING PREVIEW - NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS VS BRISBANE BRONCOS

Rugby League

2024-07-20 - Newcastle Knights vs Brisbane Broncos

A Sports Betting Preview by Stu

Newcastle Knights v Brisbane Broncos
Rugby League : Australia : NRL
Saturday 20th July 2024 - KO 1730 AEST

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Newcastle Knights

After Newcastles loss last weekend dropped them further down the table, Knights supporters and players alike now know further losses from here will almost certainly drop them out of contention, a victory though will keep them in the hunt, but the winning must continue to make the post season.

Newcastle are in 10th position on 20 points and a record of 8-9, this means they are 2 points clear of 5 teams and within a victory of 2 further teams making it a very tight race for the last couple of spot in the top 8.

Newcastle faced Manly away at their last outing and it turned into a very tough afternoon for the vistors with both teams being effected due to Origin 3. When Manly scored their first try just 5 minutes into the match, Newcastle looked competitive, however it would take the Knights until the 73rd minute to score their only try all the while Manly thoroughly dominant with an 8 try, 44 point showing in front of their home fans, final score 44-6.

Newcastle Knights Team News - Kalyn Ponga, Bradman Best and Dane Gagai, have all been named to back up after Origin. Jack Hetherington joins the bench in the only other named change.

Brisbane Broncos

Brisbane are on a roll, in the worst way possible, losing the last 6 straight matches, tumbling down the table and without a run of about 6+ straight victories are in serious danger of missing the finals. Currently placed 13th on 18 points just 2 behind Newcastle their record is 7-10 and last 10 matches just 3-7, boy do they need a win to right the ship, albeit making the finals looks beyond them at present.

Brisbane played against St George at home in the shortened bye weekend and proceeded to have a shocker of a first half, scoring just 6 points but allowing in 4 tries the match looked close to done at HT, St George well in front, 6-22 at the break.

Conceding a try straight after the break further cooled Brisbane’s hope of a victory in front of their home fans, a late rally of 4 tries, just 2 of those converted to fall 4 points short, 26-30 making for 6 straight losses.

Brisbane Broncos Team News - Brisbane welcome back a huge inclusion with Adam Reynolds making his return from injury, 3 other players will back up from Origin, Pat Carrigan, Payne Haas and Reece Walsh all named.

Odds

The visiting Brisbane team have been named as favourites, $2.40 to $1.58, the line 4.5 points and total points is 48.5

The Betting Verdict

Newcastle and Brisbane are in a similar predicament as they attempt to make the top 8 with 8 rounds remaining. A loss in this fixture will make it very unlikely that team will feature in the post season, and even the victors could struggle given both have tough ends to their respective seasons ahead.

Newcastle are two points clear of Brisbane, making their chances slightly better, but that advantage will be gone after this weekend without a victory here. The return of their 3 big stars, Best, Gagai and key man Ponga will be crucial here, Ponga in particular as he can break open a match even given enough space.

Brisbane look set to miss the finals after finishing second last season and playing in the grand final. That was the first top 8 finish since 2019 where they made 8th position. Just like Newcastle, the Knights get back 3 big stars, and all need to be in top form to keep their finals aspirations on track, Bradman Best scored the first of only two tries in the Origin 3 match and apart from a couple of handling errors in tackles, he played with power and strength, something Newcastle have lacked.

The Knights have won only two of their past nine games against the Broncos at McDonald Jones Stadium. The overall H2H record is 15-26 with one draw from 42 matches while the Knights win 51% at home, the Broncos 11-10 at this venue. This is the first meeting in 2024, winning margins over the past 4 matches, 4,18,24 and 13.

The Broncos have won their past four games against the Knights and given the desperation needed and the return of Reynolds to control the game, Brisbane are the likely victors here even with the match being played away from home.

Newcastle will not be the easy beats they were last weekend though so expect it to be a little closer than their latest 40 point loss. The Broncos should be able to take care of Newcastle by at least a try, making the 4.5 point line a good choice and the suggested bet for this match.

The Pick :

Newcastle Knights 16-26 Brisbane Broncos

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Brisbane -4.5 points line betting option for Brisbane to win by 5 or more returning $1.91 with Bet365