RUGBY LEAGUE BETTING PREVIEW - CANBERRA RAIDERS VS CRONULLA SHARKS

Rugby League

2025-09-20 - Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks

A Sports Betting Preview by Stu

Canberra Raiders v Cronulla Sharks
Rugby League : Australia : NRL finals 2025
Saturday 20th September 2025 - KO 1950 AEST

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Canberra Raiders

You have to feel for Canberra after one of the toughest losses (and best match) I can recall were inflicted upon them after seemingly being in control of the match leading 28-12 with about 15 minutes to play, only for Reece Walsh to pull out a try, a try assist then an after fulltime penalty to take the match into extra time.

Canberra had their chances but couldn’t ice the field goal, then Ben Hunt slotting a long range attempt of the post and in for the Raiders to fall agonizingly short 28-29.

Canberra’s strength at GIO stadium has repeatedly shown in 2025. The familiarity, the atmosphere, the weight of expectation all combine to push the Raiders to dig deep along with the painful loss from last weekend, I am sure the Raiders will be up for this one.

When their offence clicks, they are seriously hard to stop. Ethan Strange has been in super hot form - scoring multiple tries in the lead-up. Losing a tight one like their last match can go two ways — it can sap confidence, or it can steel resolve. They know what’s at stake.

Team news – the same 17 has been named.

Cronulla Sharks

Cronulla are through their first knockout match after defeating the Roosters in a fiery encounter at home. Cronulla outscored their more fancied rivals 3 tries to 2 but it was a far from convincing performance, winning 20-10.

With Hynes orchestrating and Trindall in good form, Cronulla can manage field position and tempo. Their forwards led by Addin Fonua-Blake provide the platform for phases to matter and the Sharks have shown recently they can close out strong games, or at least hang tough until the final whistle.

Canberra is not just any venue; the weight of expectation, the roar of the crowd, the tight finals intensity can pressure visiting sides, Cronulla will need to maintain their composure early. And Cronulla must limit penalties, errant passes, and offloads in their own half or under heat.

A error here or there could shift momentum decisively.
Having just scrapped through Week 1, and coming to face a wounded yet determined Raiders side, Cronulla must guard against hanging back into defending more than attacking.

Team news – Hazleton may return from injury otherwise no changes from last weekends victorious team.

Odds

The visiting Cowboys will start as slight favourites, $1.57 to $2.45, the line is 4.5 points and combined points 45.5

The Betting Verdict

Canberra have just come off one of the most heart-crushing defeats of their season — a golden point collapse to Brisbane after leading by 16. The sting of that match lingers, a sharp reminder that in September, no lead is safe, no momentum guaranteed.

For the Sharks, momentum is on their side. Having survived elimination in Week 1, they ride in with confidence, belief, and a sense that the pressure is on the hosts to bounce back.

This game is about more than ability, it’s about character after last weekends heroics. Canberra want redemption; Cronulla want to prove that their late-season surge was no fluke.

GIO Stadium will be packed, charged with expectation from Raiders fans, many of whom feel their minor premiership rightfully demands at least a finals run. But the Sharks arrive methodical, led by Nicho Hynes and Braydon Trindall, their pack willing to grind and the edges dangerous under the right conditions.

Canberra winning the minor premiership comes with expectation, plus that last-minute loss to Brisbane means the Raiders carry emotional weight into this must-win situation. A poor start, and nerves could cost them.

52 matches have been played between these 2 clubs and it couldn’t be tighter, 26-26. Earlier this season in April, these sides played out a great match, Canberra scoring 4 tries to 3 and claiming a 24-20 victory at this very venue, Canberra scoring their final try with 2 minutes to play and Fogarty slotting the conversion to win by 4. Cronulla have a reasonable record here, 14-13 while the home team are 59% victors at GIO.

While Canberra have been excellent over the regular season, their finals record has some cracks — winning tight finals and avoiding fading, while Cronulla come in with nothing to lose, which might allow them to play freer.

From kick-off, Canberra will look to assert control, pushing through the middle, kicking smart, forcing repeat sets, and testing Cronulla’s defensive edges. Their aim: make Sharks feel uncomfortable early, stop them finding rhythm. Cronulla, conversely, will try to stay composed, use their halves to manage territory, catch Canberra on the break, and bring pressure to the Raiders’ defensive line, particularly on the wings and second-phase where space can be created.

The middle third of the match will be crucial: how each pack handles fatigue, how well the hookers and forward rotation crews manage the ruck and generate quick play. If Cronulla can force errors there, they might swing momentum. But if Canberra settle into defence and limit outside breaks, they’ll build phases and points on their terms.

This will be a tight, emotionally charged contest. Canberra have the tools to respond, but Cronulla have shown enough in recent weeks to suggest they won’t roll over.

I see this one ending with Canberra Raiders 26-16 Cronulla Sharks — a Raiders win by 10 points.

The Pick :

Canberra Raiders 26-16 Cronulla Sharks

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take the combined points under 45.5 points at odds of $1.91 with Bet365