NCAA Football BETTING PREVIEW - California Golden Bears @ San Diego State Aztecs

NCAA Football

2025-09-20 - California Golden Bears at San Diego State Aztecs

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

California Golden Bears @ San Diego State Aztecs
United States : College Football Week 4
Saturday 20th September 2025 - Scheduled 10:30pm
3:30am (British Time)

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Preview

The poor start made by the Clemson Tigers seems to have opened up the ACC and the California Golden Bears (3-0) will certainly feel they can exploit any gaps that have developed at the top.

Last season they finished with a 6-7 record, but there were enough close defeats in that time to believe that better was to come.

Non-Conference results are not always the best indication, but California have beaten Oregon State and Minnesota and they are set as big favourites to beat San Diego State Aztecs (1-1).

In 2024, California were 21 point winners against San Diego State at home and they are a significant favourite on the road. You can understand the reasoning for that considering how well the Golden Bears have begun this season, but they will have to be careful that they are not overlooking this opponent with the first ACC game on deck at Boston College set for Week 5.

The Golden Bears Offensive Line should be able to have some success on the ground as the Washington State Cougars did in their game with the San Diego State Aztecs, although the majority of the pressure will be on Quarter Back Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.

He beat out Devin Brown, a transfer from Ohio State, and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has impressed with 6 Touchdowns and a single Interception. After watching Jaxson Potter carve up the San Diego State Secondary, Sagapolutele and the Offense will certainly feel they can pick up where Washington State left off.

One challenge for the Golden Bears is that they are facing a team out of a Bye Week and with adjustments that will have been made. Even then, you have to believe California continue to roll and they can certainly pile up the yards and then see if the Aztecs have enough about them to make this competitive.

They were not able to do that in the blowout loss to the Washington State Cougars and San Diego State will be facing a California Defensive unit that have opened the season looking in very strong form.

San Diego State will want to lean on the Offensive Line and Running Back Lucky Sutton, but that is not going to be easy considering what we have seen from the Golden Bears Defensive Line. The road team will be aware that Sutton is the best player on this side of the ball for the Aztecs, and the home team are not going to be shying away from continuing to pound the rock, but it could be tough to move the chains with any consistency.

That will mean pressure on Jayden Denegal at Quarter Back, who struggled in the road loss at the Cougars.

He has been relatively well protected by the San Diego State Offensive Line, but Denegal has struggled for consistency and that may be the case against this California Secondary. There will be moments of success, but it could be another tough day in the office for this Offense and that could see the California Golden Bears eventually pull clear.

In recent years, the Golden Bears are 8-0 against the spread when playing non-Conference road games, while they are 14-7 against the spread in non-Conference games overall.

The spread is not going to be an easy one to deal with, but the Golden Bears can do enough to secure a two Touchdown win.

Prediction

Lay the points with the road favourite.

The Pick :

San Diego State 17-33 California Golden Bears

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back California Golden Bears - 14 Points at -110 with Bovada