RUGBY LEAGUE BETTING PREVIEW - BRISBANE BRONCOS VS PENRITH PANTHERS

Rugby League

2025-09-28 - Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers

A Sports Betting Preview by Stu

Brisbane Broncos v Penrith Panthers
Rugby League : Australia : NRL
Sunday 28th September 2025 - KO 1605 AEST

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Brisbane Broncos

After barely surviving their opening finals match by coming from 16 behind to defeat the minor premiers, Canberra on their home turf 28-29. Brisbane have the feel-good grit of a team that believes they can go on and win.

That kind of belief can drive second efforts, unexpected tries as we saw 2 weeks ago. Suncorp always provides Brisbane with energy, familiarity, and reduce margins of error—if they start well, the crowd will lift them into phases where Penrith might be a fraction slower.

Walsh can create moments of magic from nothing, he is the epitome of X-factor. If he gets room and good service, Brisbane can explode and if he does make a Grand final by upsetting the 4 time defending champs.

Brisbane need to look to create, rather than assuming it will happen, this is do or die now, if Penrith deny space and force them to do the hard yards, errors may creep in. And against Penrith’s edge runners and second phase, any defensive misalignment or miss could be punished heavily. Discipline and concentration must be near perfect to upset Penrith.

Brisbane Broncos Team News - Adam Reynolds is back along Ezra Mam – both recovering from hamstring injuries, which is a risk. Billy Walters is out to an ACL injury, Tyson Smoothy starts at lock with Carrigan out suspended.

Penrith Panthers

The Panthers been here many times. The nerve, the discipline, the game sense—they tend to rise in the big matches, make less unforced errors and demand control.

Alamoti, To’o, Papali’i offer multiple attacking threats and that in combination with Nathan Clearys pinpoint kicking game, Brisbane have to be at their best to combat multiple threats. When Penrith get on a roll, they can score fast and punch through tired defences.

Penrith won through to this knockout Semi final by first beating the Warriors in NZ 8-24 and then last weekend, easily taking care of the Bulldogs 26-46. Safe to say the Panthers come in with good attacking form.

Penrith have in recent weeks delivered both explosive starts and games where they tend ease off. They’ll need from minute one to be fully switched on here.

The Broncos have shown they can punch back, especially when backed against the wall. Penrith cannot allow early momentum to go the other way.

Penrith Panthers Team News – Penrith have named the same 17.

Odds

Penrith are ahead in the betting options, $2.20 to $1.70, the line 2.5 points and total points is 49.5

The Betting Verdict

There is a certain electricity in the air whenever Brisbane and Penrith meet, but this one feels even more charged – a winner takes all, spot in the grand final and all the narratives that come with it, and all the tension of one shot to make history.

Brisbane come into this game with something to prove—they survived a bruising encounter in week one, escaping Canberra in golden point after trailing heavily, and have had the luxury of week off to reset. Penrith arrive with momentum of a different sort, confidence, continuity, a dangerous half that’s sharp, and a history of coming alive when it counts most.

The Broncos will lean on their star pairings to provide spark. Reece Walsh is the kind of player who can turn a game in an instant, and despite missing some parts of their forward pack (Pat Carrigan suspended, Billy Walters lost to injury) the Broncos energy and attacking potential remain significant threats.

Penrith, for their part, seem built for this moment, not to mention aiming for 6 straight Grand Finals. Their mid-season patchiness is behind them, and their recent performances have hurt opponents early, particularly the way they dismantled the Bulldogs, absolutely burying them with an incredible first half performance.

Overall H2H is just in favour of Brisbane, 24-1-21 from 46 matches played. Brisbane win 59% at home, Penrith are 19-15 at Suncorp and the Panthers have won the past 5 encounters with the last match earlier this season, 32-8 Brisbane scoring inside 10 minutes and nothing more than a penalty to show for the remaining 70minutes.

The kickoff will likely be cagey with the match largely being played without errors and in the middle of the park. Brisbane will want to try unsettle Penrith early, apply pressure, force errors, perhaps score first and get into Penrith’s face defensively.

Penrith, meanwhile, will look to settle their halves, use possession smartly, and try to build heat in their forward pack so the edges open later in the game.

I see this being tight, perhaps tighter than some expect, but in the final quarter, Penrith’s experience and composure give them the edge.

Penrith to win $1.70

First try scorer options :
- Kotoni Staggs $15
- or Leota $67

The Pick :

Brisbane Broncos 18-26 Penrith Panthers

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take the total combined points under 49.5 points returning $1.97 with Bet365