RUGBY LEAGUE BETTING PREVIEW - MELBOURNE STORM VS BRISBANE BRONCOS

Rugby League

2025-10-05 - Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos

A Sports Betting Preview by Stu

Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos
Rugby League : Australia : NRL Season 2025
Sunday 5th October 2025 - KO 1930 AEST

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Melbourne Storm

Melbourne finished a strong season in 2nd position on a commendable 17-7 record. Their road to the finals was much the same as Brisbane, winning in week one 26-18 over the Bulldogs, 2 weeks off and then a tough but inevitable victory over the luckless Sharks to qualify.

Melbourne’s season has seen them stitched together by structure and determination with numerous injuries. The injuries were to key personnel but all of these players—Jahrome Hughes, Ryan Papenhuyzen, Cameron Munster, and Harry Grant—have returned to full strength. Their attacking creativity and defensive discipline merge at perhaps their highest point in 2025.

Their run through the finals has been measured and efficient. The Storm through the Wiley coaching of Craig Bellamy have leaned on their ability to absorb pressure, control middle phases, and force opposition errors, then punish them.

There is also a strong history to their dominance over Brisbane in recent years, particularly in head-to-head matchups, to the point the Brisbane players will have some doubt going into this one.

Melbourne Storm Team news – no changes named

Brisbane Broncos

Brisbane has had a mixed season, sometimes being unstoppable only for a week later to play so poorly they shouldn’t make the finals. however the back end of the season was strong and this helped Brisbane to finish 4th , 15-9, just ahead of Cronulla, then beating Canberra in week one of the finals gave the Broncos the 2 week break which was a key factor in the victory over Penrith to qualify for the big dance.

For the Broncos, the road to the Grand Final feels like redemption. They dismantled previous barriers—most notably Penrith’s dominance over them and the whole competition—demonstrating grit, belief, capacity to recover.

Their spine, bolstered by returnees like Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam last weekend, along with forwards such as Payne Haas and leaders able to lift in key moments, have given them the chance. Yet questions linger, can Brisbane match Melbourne’s defensive intensity? Will their attacking flair persist under the heat of the title decider?

The weight of expectations—both external and internal—looms large. Not to mention the very long gap between their last grand final victory, last being 2006 with 2 defeats since then losing in 2015 and 2023.

Brisbane Broncos Team news - Pat Carrigan returns in the only change named.

Odds

Melbourne lead the betting, $1.72 to $2.15, the line is 2.5 points and combined points 40.5

The Betting Verdict

Sunday night’s Grand Final between the Melbourne Storm and Brisbane Broncos isn’t just another title game. It’s a meeting of two sides that have created very different legacies over the past 2 decades and also quite different paths through the season past.

The Storm arrive as favourites, built on foundations old and new — experienced spine members, defensive reputation, and a hunger to atone for last year’s defeat. The Broncos come through the dramas, comeback wins, stirring belief, arriving battle-scarred but unbowed, dreaming of ending a long 19 year drought.

Defensive resolve vs attacking flash - Storm’s defence is world-class. They have held teams under pressure, limited line breaks, and forced mistakes. If Melbourne can shut down Brisbane’s edge runners and deny second-phase opportunities, they’ll sap Brisbane’s momentum. On the other hand, Brisbane’s ability to strike quickly, sometimes unexpectedly from distance—big runs, break-aways, offloads — can disrupt Storm’s structure if they get on top early.

Jahrome Hughes returning from injury adds both skill and risk, albeit he played superbly last weekend. Fullback Papenhuyzen, half Munster, and Grant in hooker will need to connect in attack, but also guide their side when the game gets tight. While Brisbane’s Reynolds and Walsh will need to seize moments early before Melbourne’s defence locks in and Payne Haas needs to play as well as he can to try and give the middle as much punch as possible.

Overall H2H has the Storm well out in front of the Broncos, 43-15 with one draw from 59 matches played. The teams met twice this season with the spoils shared, Melbourne winning 22-2 not that long ago in round 22 and then again in the last round of the regular season Brisbane won 30-14 – Melbourne did rest a large number of players in that fixture.

Even though the match is at a neutral ground, Melbourne’s recent form suggests they might be better primed for final-minute tension, while Brisbane’s dramatic comeback performances may give them belief, but also leave physical and mental fatigue.

This game has all the ingredients of a potential classic, star power, narrative weight and contrasting playing styles. For me, Melbourne still have the upper hand – particularly when considering grand final experience. Along with that experience, their defence, spine cohesion, and head-to-head history count for more in this setting than raw momentum alone.

I expect Storm to start strongly, soak up Broncos surges on defence and attack, and gradually build a lead. Brisbane will fight back, score tries if they get an opportunity, and test Melbourne’s composure, especially late, but the Storm's defensive discipline and ability to close games will likely carry them over the line, thus taking the combined points under in a grand final they way to go here.

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The Pick :

Melbourne Storm 22-14 Brisbane Broncos

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take the combined points under 40.5 points at odds of $1.91 with Bet365