MLB Baseball BETTING PREVIEW - Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners

MLB Baseball

2025-10-16 - Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners
United States : MLB Playoff American League Championship Series Game 4
Thursday 16th October 2025 - Scheduled 8:33pm
1:33am (British Time)

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Preview

Things would have felt pretty worrying for the Toronto Blue Jays after the Seattle Mariners took a 2-0 lead at the bottom of the First Inning in Game 3. After dropping both games at home and showing little Offensive energy, Toronto fans everywhere had to be wondering if the team had anything left to fight back.

But as mentioned in the Game 3 preview, one swing of a bat can change everything.

Andres Gimenez had not hit a Home Run since the end of August, but did that at the bottom of the Third Inning to tie the game and the Blue Jays never looked back. They took advantage of some pretty poor pitching from George Kirby, who was leaving the ball over the middle of the plate, and Toronto produced four more Home Runs and other big Hits, which ultimately led to a strong 13-4 win.

However, it is only one win and the American League Championship Series moves onto a pivotal Game 4 on Thursday.

This time the Mariners are going to be sending Luis Castillo to the mound, another pitcher who had more success in the pitcher friendly confines of being home compared with the road. He had a 2.60 ERA at T-Mobile Park in the regular season and a 4.71 ERA on the road and Luis Castillo 6 Innings here in the Divisional Round against the Detroit Tigers and allowed a single Hit.

All of this has to give the pitcher confidence, although the Toronto bats looked really impressive on Wednesday.

Luis Castillo has a 2-3 record and 4.68 ERA in six career starts against the Blue Jays, while he faced them twice in the regular season in 2025 and finished with a 1-1 record and 7.20 ERA.

Ironically, the poorer of those outings was in this ballpark when Castillo allowed five runs in 5 Innings thrown and had to take the decision loss on the day.

Seattle will be looking to bounce back from the Game 3 walloping and they will at least take some comfort from the fact that their own batting lineup produced some big Hits in the losing effort.

The Mariners will be facing veteran Max Scherzer who had a difficult regular season, but who has a host of Playoff experience that will make him potentially dangerous. He has yet to pitch in the post-season in 2025, but two years ago Max Scherzer was a member of the eventual World Series Champions Texas Rangers and he has thrown 143 Innings in this setting.

It has been almost a month since Max Scherzer last pitched and he did end the regular season with a 1-3 record and 9.00 ERA from the last six starts made. He allowed at least four runs in five of those six starts and Toronto are likely to have Scherzer on a pretty short leash for this important Game 4.

Max Scherzer has not pitched against Seattle this season, but he has a 4-2 record and 2.97 ERA in nine career starts against this opponent.

Prediction

This ballpark has notoriously been a pitcher's paradise, but you would not have thought that as the Game 3 Home Runs piled up.

Seeing the Toronto Blue Jays bounce back as they did makes them a dangerous proposition for Luis Castillo, who has historically struggled against them.

He was knocked around twice in the regular season and the start at home was particularly poor.

In general Luis Castillo has pitched well at T-Mobile Park, but there is pressure on him after seeing what the Blue Jays were able to do to George Kirby.

One factor that could play out differently is that Bryan Woo could be available out of the bullpen- he has been the stronger Mariners pitcher in the regular season and could be able to offer some relief Innings, even though he has not played for a month.

Toronto will expect to have some success against the starter going up for Seattle, but the Mariners have to feel the same about Max Scherzer.

The veteran has struggled for consistency this season and had a really poor run down the stretch, while Scherzer has not pitched for a while himself having been left out of the Divisional Round Series.

The Mariners have started early in games and this could be another one in this Series that ends up trending over the total line set. Both teams could get into the bullpens pretty quickly if the batters continue to see the baseball as big as they did on Wednesday and it could be another game where the total is surpassed in a blink of an eye.


George Kirby was one Strike Out away from seeing all three Prop picks identified in Game 3 return as winners- the Nathan Lukes and Jorge Polanco Hit double was in before the 4th Inning at 2.50.

It is a Game 4 where the preview has already pointed to the total line being beaten and the Home Run hitting could continue from Game 3.

Both Julio Rodriguez (4.90) and Jorge Polanco (6.00) are building up their reputations and both have had successes against Max Scherzer in the past. The former is 2-5 with a Home Run against the veteran, while Polanco is 2-8 with a Home Run of his own and they could be the value players compared with Cal Raleigh who remains short having hit another Homer here on Wednesday.

Andres Gimenez got things going for the Blue Jays and is a big price to hit another Home Run- he has one against Luis Castillo before and holds a 4-19 record against him, although the absence of the big shot before Game 3 tones down that enthusiasm.

Instead it may be best to back Vladimir Guerrero Jr to continue his post-season blitz.

He had a huge Double that only just missed clearing the yard, but later did manage to put a ball out of reach of the wall and at 4.90 he looks like he could have another impact in this Game 4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr is 4-15 against Luis Castillo and yet to hit a Home Run against this starter, but he has four Home Runs in the 2025 Playoffs and could easily add another here.

With those three selections, one hitting a Home Run produces a decent profit, but two or more and the Props will continue to roll as they have been in this post-season.

The Pick :

Seattle Mariners 6-5 Toronto Blue Jays

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Over 7.5 Total Runs at -113 with Bookmaker.eu