Tennis BETTING PREVIEW - Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex De Minaur

Tennis

2025-11-11 - Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex De Minaur

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

#9 Lorenzo Musetti vs #7 Alex De Minaur
Tennis: ATP Finals Group Stage
Tuesday 11th November 2025 - Scheduled 8:30pm
7:30pm (British Time)

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Preview

He has won the last three head to head matches against this opponent, including both played in 2025, and that may just give Lorenzo Musetti the belief to push on and win this Group match at the ATP Finals.

Another loss will likely mean elimination for whoever ends up on the wrong side of this match.

Lorenzo Musetti made it really clear how much he wanted to compete at the ATP Finals in Turin and that meant putting in a monumental effort in Athens when reaching the Final played on Saturday. He lost that to Novak Djokovic and needed the withdrawal to take his place at the ATP Finals, and you do have to wonder if there is much left in the tank.

It certainly did not look the case in a relatively straight-forward loss to Taylor Fritz on Monday- Lorenzo Musetti started off pretty well, but he looked more and more tired as the match went on and that was really evident in the service games.

A little more than twenty-four hours rest is not going to make a lot of difference and Musetti is going to need the Italian fans to get firmly behind him, as they did on Monday to their credit. Being an Evening Session match should mean the fans are more 'up' for this match, which can help too, but Lorenzo Musetti has played a lot of tennis since Friday and spent a lot of hours on the court.

All of that is going to be tested by Alex De Minaur who is one of the top defenders on the Tour and who will have last played on Sunday when coming up short against the World Number 1.

Losing both matches to Lorenzo Musetti in 2025 will perhaps be on the mind, but those were defeats on clay courts, while the previous loss in 2024 was on the grass courts. The sole hard court match was played in a very different atmosphere at the Australian Open in January 2022 when Alex De Minaur came through in four sets in an environment where he would have been heavily backed from the stands, the complete opposite to what awaits on Tuesday evening.

The most recent match between the pair in Madrid was dominated by Lorenzo Musetti, but Alex De Minaur will have regrets about the loss in Monte Carlo. In the first three matches between the pair, the Australian had dominated the number of Break Points created and De Minaur may be able to outlast Lorenzo Musetti in this match.

Alex De Minaur will need to serve better than he did in the loss to Carlos Alcaraz, but he can keep his opponent out there for long enough to slow him down. That will then really become evident on the return with De Minaur likely happy to sit in during rallies and just allow Lorenzo Musetti to be worn down and eventually this may lead to a solid enough victory to keep Alex De Minaur alive in the tournament.

The home fans will push Lorenzo Musetti to bring his best throughout, but the feeling is that he has left something in Athens after fighting so hard to merely make the ATP Finals in Turin and that will leave the World Number 9 short of the energy that is going to be needed in this match.

Prediction

This feels like another big challenge for a tired player who can only use the crowd for so long before perhaps wilting in this match.

The Pick :

Lorenzo Musetti 0-2 Alex De Minaur

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games at 1.80 with Bet365