NFL Football BETTING PREVIEW - Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

NFL Football

2026-01-04 - Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
United States : NFL Week 18
Sunday 4th January 2025 - Scheduled 1pm
6pm (British Time)

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Preview

There is still an outside chance that the Houston Texans (11-5) can win the AFC South, but they will need to win this game and hope the Jacksonville Jaguars lose when facing the Tennessee Titans. That looks unlikely, but the Texans will be playing next week in the Wild Card Round of the post-season, no matter what happens in Week 18.

Winning the Division would mean a home game in the Wild Card, but everything is suggesting the Houston Texans would actually be heading onto the road and very likely against the aforementioned Divisional rivals Jacksonville.

Nothing suggests the Texans will be resting key players in this one in preparation for next week and the start of the Playoffs and that gives Houston the edge in this game.

They are hosting the Indianapolis Colts (8-8) who will be motivated by wanting to end the season with a winning record, but injuries have stacked up and that has ultimately cost the Colts. Philip Rivers came out of retirement to try and help Indianapolis find a win or two that may have been enough to earn a spot in the post-season, but it was not to be and Rivers is not going to be starting this final regular season game.

Instead it is Riley Leonard who will be given a first start in the NFL as the Colts look to analyse what they have in the young Quarter Back, although it seems harsh to do that against this Houston Defensive unit.

It is the Houston Defense that has been the main reason the Texans have won eight in a row and built up considerable momentum to take into the Playoffs.

The Texans Defensive Line will certainly feel they can clamp down on the run and see if the Indianapolis Colts trust Riley Leonard to beat them with his arm. That is going to be a huge challenge for an inexperienced Quarter Back, especially against a Secondary that loves to turn the ball over, and Leonard being asked to make plays from third and long spots on the field looks tough.

Even with that in mind, this does feel like a big spread considering how Offensively challenged the Houston Texans have been this season- the Defensive unit, as stated before, have been the key, and CJ Stroud and company have some making up to do if they are going to offer the same kind of quality when they have the ball.

In saying that, this may be a Defensive unit that Houston can expose and especially if they are able to create short fields.

Credit has to be given to the Colts Defensive Line for the way they have continued to fight at the Line of Scrimmage, but the Secondary have picked up too many injuries and that has allowed Quarter Backs to attack the Colts with plenty of success. We have seen the likes of Brock Purdy pile up the Offensive numbers against the Colts and there are some key starters sitting out in Week 18, which can only aid CJ Stroud in his bid to show rivals that this Houston team have some firepower that deserves to be respected.

The Quarter Back should have time when he steps back to throw, and he should be able to hurt this Colts Secondary.

With a couple of turnovers, the Houston Texans may just end up pulling clear of a visiting team that will look back at this season with some regret and one that may lose some motivation if they fall a couple of scores behind.

Prediction

Lay the points with the home team that will still be playing Football next week.

The Pick :

Houston Texans 27-10 Indianapolis Colts

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Houston Texans - 10.5 Points at -110 with Bovada