ENGLISH PREMIER BETTING PREVIEW - ARSENAL VS MANCHESTER UNITED

English Premier

2026-01-25 - Arsenal vs Manchester United

A Sports Betting Preview by Auls

Arsenal v Manchester United
Football: English Premier League
Sunday 25th January 2025 - Kick Off 4:30pm
This game is live on TV

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Arsenal

One of the big factors that English clubs have to deal with in the latter stages of the Champions League is the toughness of the top flight and having to manage minutes, unlike some of the other top European Leagues. However, there is also no disguising the gap in quality between some of the top English clubs and their European counterparts and Arsenal underlined the point with a convincing 1-3 win at Inter Milan on Tuesday night.

Progress has been secured to the Last 16 of the Champions League, which clears a bit of the schedule in February, and Arsenal have also been able to open up a 7 point lead in the Premier League. The gap to Manchester City and Aston Villa was extended last week, despite the goalless draw at Nottingham Forest, and Arsenal will be looking to keep the pressure on the main title rivals by improving the 9-2-0 record at the Emirates Stadium.

Arsenal have been able to push their unbeaten run on another game following the victory in Italy on Match Day 7 of the Champions League. The Gunners have won 9 of the last 12 games played in all competitions, but the 7 home League game winning run was ended most recently in a goalless draw with Liverpool.

Riccardo Calafiori is expected to miss out, but Gabriel should be restored to the starting eleven, along with Declan Rice and Victor Gyokeres. Gabriel Jesus did score twice in the midweek start and will be pushing to retain his place, and Mikel Arteta is blessed with a lot of options.

Manchester United

Michael Carrick may still be expecting to be told that his tenure as Manchester United interim manager will be concluding in the summer, but he could not have asked for any more from his first game in charge after returning to the club. Winning the derby would have been a successful day regardless, but winning in the way Manchester United did will have done Carrick and his staff the world of good.

There had been some really unfair criticism aimed at the appointment of Michael Carrick in the build up to the Manchester derby, but the fact it came from former Manchester United players perhaps stung a bit more. He did not allow that to distract him from the job at hand and the three points earned by Manchester United pushes them back up into 5th place in the Premier League table. The side have a 3-5-3 away record in the top flight and that will need to be improved to conclude this season with a return to the top European competitions.

Manchester United had won 1 of the previous 7 games in all competitions and had been dumped out of the FA Cup the previous weekend, but there was a change in intensity and desire in the 2-0 win over Manchester City. The final scoreline flattered the visitors, but Michael Carrick knows there is plenty more work to do as he looks to guide Manchester United in a position to snap a 3 away game winless run.

Noussair Mazraoui is back from the African Cup of Nations, but may be given a bit more time to adjust. Both Matthijs de Ligt and Joshua Zirkzee are expected to miss this fixture.

Head to Head

An early goal was enough for Arsenal to scramble for a 0-1 win at Old Trafford on the opening Sunday of the season.

That result extends Arsenal's run to 7 unbeaten in this rivalry.

Arsenal have beaten Manchester United 4 times in a row at the Emirates Stadium in the Premier League, but the last fixture ended in a 1-1 draw here in the FA Cup and an eventual United Penalty Shoot Out win.

Prediction

Ten days ago, most Arsenal fans may have fancied this fixture against Manchester United, but the performance of the latter last weekend has put a different gloss on the game.

The layers agree with the Arsenal price drifting from the opening, although they are still rightly favourites for the fixture.

The Gunners have not only produced a big win over Inter Milan during the week, but they are clear at the top of the Premier League table and a long unbeaten run to protect. Add in the factor that Arsenal are unbeaten in 7 against Manchester United in normal time and that they have beaten United in 4 straight home League games can only swing the pendulum in favour of the hosts.

Arsenal will need to be a little better than they were in the goalless draw with Liverpool when they struggled to break down a team that had little attacking desire.

However, it should suit them that Michael Carrick has made it clear that he wants Manchester United to attack and entertain- that does not make Carrick naive though and he should have a solid foundation from which Manchester United can spring out on the counter attack in much of the same style they produced against Manchester City last Saturday.

Doing that at Old Trafford and managing emotions on their travels is a different challenge, but being away may allow Michael Carrick to set his team up to be that much harder to beat.

Games between these two teams have tended to be closely fought in recent times, even if Arsenal have gotten the better of things in the main.

The difference has been the set piece play and it should be noted that four of the last five goalscorers for Arsenal have been defenders.

With the outright lines looking a little tougher to call, backing Gabriel to have at least one shot on target looks a very big price at 4.50.

He scored in the FA Cup tie last year, while his fellow defenders Jurrien Timber and William Saliba scored in his absence last season. Gabriel has remained a huge threat from set pieces since returning from injury recently and he is likely going to be the main focus from set pieces and corner as usual.

This is still a problematic area for Manchester United and Arsenal are the best team when it comes to using those angles to break down teams.

It still feels like a game that Arsenal are likely to win, but Manchester United have the attacking players to cause problems and so backing the big home centre half to have an impact on both ends of the field looks a decent option to take.

The Pick :

Arsenal 2-1 Manchester United

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Gabriel Over 0.5 Shots on Target at 4.50 with Bet365

HANDICAP BETTING :

For Arsenal fans over the last 20-30 years Manchester United are one of the big opponents whenever and where ever we meet. There is zero chance of this game being taken lightly by the Gunners.

Arsenal are in good form, 9-2-0 at the Emirates in the Premier League and unbeaten in the last 13 games in all competitions, and while not thrashing sides the Gunners have a rock solid defence that usually means scoring 2 goals will do the job.

Manchester United meanwhile have parted ways with another manager, but still sit in 5th spot in the standings and with no European or domestic cup action, United get to have week long holidays between matches.

My stats have Arsenal at 1141 pts, Man Utd at 1003 pts for a margin of 138 which translates to almost 1.4 goals. Based on 275 previous EPL games that means the home side wins this match 71% of the time, 18% are drawn and 11% finish in a shock away win.

Manchester United have a 3-5-3 away record, which is very solid and they beat Manchester City 2-0 at Old Trafford last time out - that's a great result but it also has the effect of warning Arsenal that this United team CAN match it with the best.

Arsenal have won this fixture five times in the last six games, scoring 2 or 3 goals each time, while the remaining match was drawn 0-0. That's the challenge for Arsenal here after two 0-0 draws in the LEague - can they grab a couple of goals? I think so.

In midweek I took an early price of 1.62 at Bet365 on an Arsenal victory, that's long gone now but a price of 1.40 is fair value for a home win here, so anything above is +EV and 1.55 to 1.57 is still on offer.