Tennis BETTING PREVIEW - Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien

Tennis

2026-01-25 - Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien
Tennis : Australian Open Fourth Round
Sunday 25th January 2025 - Scheduled 11:30am
12:30am (British Time)

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Preview

Twelve months ago, a young Qualifier moved into the main draw at the Australian Open and upset the then World Number 5 in the Second Round of the tournament.

Learner Tien was Ranked outside the top 100 in the 2025 Australian Open after battling through those Qualifying Rounds, but it has been a memorable twelve months for the 20 year old and more improvement is expected in the weeks and months ahead.

He only won one Grand Slam match at the French Open, Wimbleon and US Open combined, but Learner Tien clearly enjoys playing Down Under having reached the Fourth Round for a second year in a row. This time he is a Seeded player and has not had to win six matches to make the second week and that should mean Learner Tien has plenty in the tank for this big Fourth Round match.

Five sets were needed to avoid another early Grand Slam exit, but the American has won the last two matches with a single set dropped and, importantly, has only spent a few minutes over four hours on the court.

At his age, Learner Tien will have no excuses for being fatigued and the conditions on Sunday look much more comfortable compared with the day before.

On the other side of the court, Daniil Medvedev just about remained unbeaten in 2026 by coming from two sets down to win his Third Round match, although the World Number 12 needed almost four hours before finally getting past Fabian Marozsan.

He will be well aware of the challenge coming up having faced Learner Tien three times in 2025- all on the hard courts- and all of those matches entering a final set decider. The Second Round match between them in Melbourne lasted five sets, while the match in Beijing ended in a final set withdrawal for Medvedev.

However, the most recent match was played at the Shanghai Masters and Daniil Medvedev was finally able to edge past this opponent in a 7-6, 6-7, 6-4 victory.

There has been so little between the players in the three meetings and it would be a surprise if this match was decided in straight sets either way.

Nothing has come easy when Tien and Medvedev have met one another and both have struggled to consistently hold serve, which suggests this could be another match with several swings in momentum.

Both have held 66% of service games played against the other and Learner Tien has won 57% of service points played, while Daniil Medvedev is at 59%.

You have to give the narrowest of edges to Daniil Medvedev, even after the gruelling Third Round win, but this is likely to be a Fourth Round match that goes pretty long and that could see the players end up combining to surpass the total set.

Prediction

These two players have met three times in the last twelve months and every one of those matches has been extremely competitive and needed a final set decider.

This one may not go the full five as the Second Round match at the 2025 Australian Open between the two, but even a four set match may see this total beaten.

The Pick :

Daniil Medvedev 3-1 Learner Tien

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Over 37.5 Total Games at 1.80 with BetFred