Tennis BETTING PREVIEW - Alexander Bublik vs Alex De Minaur

Tennis

2026-01-25 - Alexander Bublik vs Alex De Minaur

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

Alexander Bublik vs Alex De Minaur
Tennis : Australian Open Fourth Round
Sunday 25th January 2025 - Scheduled 11:30am
12:30am (British Time)

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Preview

He has never hidden his disdain for playing on the hard courts, but something has clicked for Alexander Bublik.

Having only previously been beyond the Second Round once in eleven hard court Grand Slam tournaments played, Alexander Bublik reached the Fourth Round at the US Open in 2025. This surprised himself, but Bublik has had a very strong twelve months on the Tour and entered the tournament in Melbourne as the World Number 10, while keeping expectations at a minimum.

He won a title in the warm up to the Australian Open, but Alexander Bublik had never been beyond the Second Round here and had lost three straight First Round matches at this opening Grand Slam of the year.

Out of all of the Grand Slams played, Alexander Bublik particularly disliked the Australian Open, but he is feeling better about things. There were even some positive words said about the event, but he may not be so happy when having to deal with an opponent and the crowd as expected to be the case in this Fourth Round match.

Alexander Bublik has not dropped a set at the tournament and that is largely down to an improved serve that has produced holds in 93% of service games played. He has been able to back that up with some aggressive returning and Bublik looks a dangerous test for home favourite Alex De Minaur.

The World Number 6 has only dropped a single set at the tournament as he looks to at least match the Quarter Final run from 2025 and Alex De Minaur has impressed with the dominant wins that have been put on the board.

Like his opponent in the Fourth Round, Alex De Minaur has held in 93% of service games played at the tournament and has only faced 9 Break Points in the event.

However, the real difference has been the way in which the Australian has returned serve, which has always been a strength, and he has broken in 40% of return games played. He will be the first to admit that he has not faced a server as strong as Alexander Bublik, but Alex De Minaur has to be confident he can at least get himself into rallies and wear down this opponent.

That looked to be the case when Alex De Minaur led Alexander Bublik 2-0 in sets at the French Open, but the latter dug in and upset the Australian in five sets.

They met again at the Paris Masters at the end of the 2025 season and that was another huge battle, which was eventually won by Alexander Bublik in three sets. Both players won at least 67% of points behind serve in that match on an indoor hard court and the conditions at Melbourne Park have been pretty quick, which makes the serve hugely important to both players.

Overall the edge has to be with the home favourite who can use the crowd to keep him going when things get tough.

Alex De Minaur's return edge could also play out over the best of five set format, but you would expect both to win a set and the serving power of the two players could see this total games number surpassed.

There is a fragility around Alexander Bublik, which could show up at any time, so a fast start will be needed to just give himself confidence in what is going to be a tough environment. As long as he can serve as well as he has this month, Bublik can make this a tough test for Alex De Minaur and both players can put on a very strong match.

Prediction

The serving produced by the two in Melbourne coupled with the close, competitive matches they have played against one another in 2025 suggests the total is a game or two light in this Fourth Round match at the Australian Open.

The Pick :

Alexander Bublik 1-3 Alex De Minaur

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Over 38.5 Total Games at 1.79 with Cloudbet